Nov 11, 2015|
Huffington Post blogger Rich Rubino recaps the fourth GOP debate
Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.
I wanna talk to our next guest we which has been on with us before and rich. And he's a wealth of information about elections in two he's also an author and the blogger Richard you know. He's the author political Bible of little known facts in the mirror and in politics. Great to have you back on rich thanks so much for joining us are reluctant to back on. So let me ask you were a Republican debates let's look at these Republican debate up to this point. These debates in this debate season compare to other primary seasons in the. Well I think that it's really we're really kind of an uncharted territory in a sense that they that the selection I think on both sides there's the rest was in direction of syndrome because on both sides. Of the liable for the democratic and Republican side. There's the insurgents who believe that the establishment of their party sold out too quickly. Babel the die on the democratic side a lot of support to Bernie Sanders believes that. Bill Clinton Hillary Clinton Barack Obama are too close to the corporate interest are too close to. What it was too close to be with it was called military industrial complex on the conservative side. Look Republicans think that John Boehner Mitch McConnell get par right now Republican leadership George W. Bush. Has spent too much money or it really began I think with the prescription drug benefit to Medicare to think this in his direction this syndrome a bull party that the feet. The only place and it really would equate the election to wedding in terms of the close it would probably come apology 1976. In the other democratic and Republican side you had the state scenario where Ronald Reagan remember reading it steals sported. Came with a came whisker close to next beat beating him and you comment direction to run against not only sport but. The Nixon Ford and and Henry Kissinger the secretary of state their legacy basically saying that the event to moderate and on the democratic side you had candidates. Like got Milton shop for example the governor Pennsylvania city public of the caliber candidate I didn't get that are in the rapists and without one and I didn't. I'm the caddy he had former governor Jimmy party and a lot of PB had not look at you had an establishment types like speed Jackson. On the electoral try to Hubert Humphrey in and it was kinda did this rubble but the people on both respect to the top between the establishment. And kind of insurrection it's cancel many expect people would never heard of this time around you have Bernie Sanders. In on the left and on top in the right now Ben Carson right in the biggest stake through the right as well people who had to adapt to be no endorsement probably from one US senator. Now one governor hasn't worked either rub them but they're all doable running essentially against these doubts and their parties. At this point can any of these candidates through these debates system make a big difference when it comes to the polls is it now going to be on the ground. You know campaigning because we've seen for debate and a lot of people this morning are saying I don't see anybody changing anybody's mind up to this point. Yeah I do think on the ground operations are extremely important and I would watch for example are marginal in the last campaign for example I'm Ron Paul and Al finished dom. Came didn't desperate disparate finished higher than expected please click on New Hampshire just because supports more vociferous and I guess that would certain people well for somebody like a pretty standard in New Hampshire. On an island vehicle at a college students a lot of the younger people. Now they were a lot of these people are going to be very well organized the very supportive on the question I have for a lot of hate her supporters it's probably have been in our fellow travelers in other words. He's TVs relic which got 20000 people opportunities they well. And wonder how many of those are people who were there because few other friends from English class political liberties and it's like how he goes racks in salt and vote necessarily so that's what. I think the brink standards organization really have to do is get to get a lot of these people to come out Howard and you remember. Last time was running at insurrection just can't democratic primary. And yet while the main supporters kind of beat. Intellectual a lot of them you know either he'd be here in college or with you know a postgraduate degrees and a lot of people you'd failed we don't really caused it to come out. We in Iowa but that didn't come out as a result on Edwards and John Kerry who had a better team on the ground. In this state of dialects finished higher than Howard Dean and of course that was what are being made is you know speech were going to but we're going to Washington DC don't take up the White House he got it. You know campaign essentially doubled over after that that adding interesting I think that you know some of these new. I think candidates like profit in his who have who haven't really run our run profits before I think you really have to have to re rely on the ground teams. Right. And and let me talk about. Polls. At this stage of the game are the polls reliable or you are people just seen. Whatever seems to be in vogue at this point. Yeah I don't I don't biamby. I wouldn't base much reliability on the pole for an obvious front Kentucky for example there are polls showing that the Democrats. Jack Conway to the governor Rick Pataki was gonna win by about ten point two wind up losing very conquer we lock by about ten point two laps. Scott Dem in the Republican. I think right now we're that they were a lot of times what people will say you know the state Moody's support and say. Well they really don't open it illegal to hack accused in the Australian Open pick you know it wanted in the state you know a lot of John K Stevens on his moved up in the polls but. Think we've seen off of ball copy Arabic public arena after that one debate performance. Kind of move got that seemed to back out again in Georgia which would kind of be early front runner in many respects. Now he's down some pulpit 5% so I think you'd better respect it really is too early. To really date people to go back in 1992 for example look at Paul Porter on the time look at how well pulse president Paul Tsongas was doing how well president Jerry Brown was doing. You know it's very it's it's it's it's easy that the look at the pulled the data person's head dispersant down plus a lot of them you're looking at a national polls and there is no national primary. Oh he really had them import the part of we do look at our Iowa and New Hampshire. And stop Carolina and Florida familiarly state not the facilities. National polls. Sure. Rich did you know offhand how many GOP hopefuls of one Iowa than lost New Hampshire but rebounded and won South Carolina. Have one well I would have won Iowa and then lost to cancer I'm thinking. George W. Bush would have been the last one and George W. Bush. With the coastal Carolina court the fire off the establishment by the way that's where. And certainly Bob Dole did that he won Iowa and lots got beat Canada can't and came in at one. Again not to 2004 of course sports group Westin heavenly to have novel opposition. 2008 McCain. McCain would have lost to Iowa and then yet you would of one wanted to answer and that it would many wondered what Carolina is supposed to be the one that really. Come to mind the interesting thing but I without you know the spirit John Sununu the former chief of staff for president George H. W. Bush and former governor can't Sherwood says that. I would pick corn you know you have to pick presidents go back to 1988. The third place finishers on the Republican side was George H. W. Bush on the democratic side with Michael Dukakis on the Republican side. Reverend pat reverend Pat Robertson actually speech or impeach George H. W. Bush the sitting vice president that's states. Of course both those two candidates came back it up winning in New Hampshire. Amen is another example I guess would be Barack Obama won in Iowa they laid up losing and cancer and Britain to Hillary Clinton but I think 98 probably. Equipment for example you know that flatly candidates sometimes will actually like John McCain to doubt that. He skipped Iowa on the 1988 member Al Gore had a strategy sent it skipping New Hampshire and Iowa and when he put yourself court never expected I'd Jesse Jackson but. I really go I think I was very much overestimated I think you can basically delete the Iowa and go wanted to you know certainly went to camps are and I think helped reliably Republican side. It really be establishment kind of applicable. Rich reveals thank you so much for your insight author of the political Bible of little known facts in American politics. Thank you. It's 744 here on the WRKO boston.com morning chance.