Jan 29, 2016|
Rich Rubino, Political Analyst, on how the GOP Debate Impacts the Iowa Caucus'
Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.
Just about how much power they really do have for tripping you know. He's an author and an analyst and he's joining us this morning to talk about just that. A rich you know when you talk about so few people who actually caucus on Monday night. It is amazing that state has as much influence as it dies in the presidential process. There really isn't a kind of a communal happen by accident too if you go back to where this whole process really began to people I think we Hawaii Iowa wide it's it's what it's such a state that so. Marvel at the committee waited so much power wealth. A really good spectator April Bertans seventy to win McGovern finish second dead monkey any really. Began in my McGovern on the McGovern certainly was relieved 76 when Jimmy Carter. Really most people focusing on New Hampshire Jimmy Carter really decide to double down on Iowa and yet he came in second to a person named uncommitted that your. Come but do you really began people thinking about who was just Jimmy Carter personally went on to win New Hampshire and any kind of became. He almost mutual progress to the campaign Clinton that kind of work began and people still. You don't focused on just gets more and more. More more publicity more more Paula seemed it seemed every single election. Let me ask you a question yeah. Ted Cruz would win on Monday and win Iowa and then Donald Trump would go on to win New Hampshire. It bite by losing. Iowa or winning Iowa who who you know does that hurt or who does that profit the most. It is imperative that you must win Iowa to go on and win you know or does it really not matter. No not really acting commune other further perfect example of being 1988 dom. You know the first place was was Bob Dole's second place with televangelist Pat Robertson and third place with George H. W. Bush. On the other side you know birthplace what is. By Dick Gephardt back and played with Paul Simon third place with Michael Dukakis so who with a two nominees who who won New Hampshire. It was bush senior in the Republican side and to caucus on the democratic side and of course became a nominee. I was actually you know I know John Sununu lake to the former chief of staff of George H. W. Bush the former governor of New Hampshire likes to stay that. I would pick cornered him to pick presidents there certainly has been precedents. Iowa picking the person who did not what do they do you know Ed Markey an example. Prior were picking somebody who did and what would we did not want to win the nomination but New Hampshire seemed to have. Can't get a little more probable lately. The past few elections for example Bill Clinton. Lost to cancer he actually lost. Iowa New Hampshire it's South Dakota and he didn't win until Georgia in March Saddam. And George gates stepped George W. Bush slot New Hampshire are not that by nineteen plot that's been hit by a one out while what I what demanded absolute need cancer by nineteen points adult. New Hampshire not as predictable as it was pleased to be a sought wherever wind New Hampshire will want to win the nomination right now I think that. Stomach when I look someone or New Hampshire and theoretically some equipment second and third album to someone like a junkets and and second in New Hampshire for example he's certainly gonna call that a win. Yeah how important some polls we've seen this week has trumped routing. Ted Cruz in South Carolina couple weeks away 67%. Have want to go trumpet in front is how important is that as a battleground for the candidates. It's extremely important because we get the South Carolina first of all you have. The evangelical influence and a tech crew came went South Carolina opening go to the so called ftp primary on March 1. We have a lot of southern state. You know Ted Cruz can't win in South Carolina that would demographics in places like Oklahoma. Kenny windows to Kenny win those states will momentum. Really well there Mike and will there be a power shift the momentum Forte crude I think that we really have to look out forks and protect crew he really. You have to won Iowa New Hampshire he'd attacked they're really placed in the first five interest not very important he don't have kids the most. Is that the second almost none terse statement to Vermont and certainly not that they were he should do well but because not a South Carolina he should at least have. He Chile to lead to be a little bit it's between him and Don Donald Albert could probably knock Marco Rubio. And they get under the self and then not really where Ted Cruz you know that's his hated in the salt though he really have to win South Carolina surely come at least come very close. Rich let me go back to Iowa for just a psychic the importance in Iowa event is it just to be you know vote the winner or in the top two. Not in the very first date for momentum purposes or do we find that candidates who don't do well there loser funding quickly. That does happen I think certainly you'll beat some candidates. After Bergkamp what Marco Rubio does exceptionally not well in Iowa you'll certainly might become his funding. I'm dissipate Chris Christie to a certain a couple of camp until we really spoke to him charming Jon Kate picked. You know it's not gonna do well and I cannot spoke to marry spokesman cancer but it really is. A momentum type of thing but it could pay you really you can lose Iowa and you can commence second you can commit the third. I think dawn Pat Buchanan another stampede locked I would went on to anyone New Hampshire I think New Hampshire is a lot more predictive. With a nominee the eventual nominee is going to be but the other issue with I remember it you have to be registered Republican. And you have to be willing to eight you know you have to blink actually show up and when I 687. Places to go to the you know gloated that they'd come to seventeen degree weather going to do this. New Hampshire you can potentially you can be as you can beat that it can be an independent data can register as Republicans. And boy in the Republican primary to the so the results a little more predictive. What I think the general of the general elections. Return Beatles thank you for your insight appreciate that college welcome thank you.