Planstrong Financial Forum 11-26-16
Nov 26, 2016|
"Smart investing, simplified"
Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.
From the plan stroll in the broadcast studios he would still play and strong environmental forum where your host. Ken carver and the president Roh plans strong investment minimum. Full portions there's still I'm Bruce Morton investing. Symbian phone. And I didn't are birdie at the anchor desk along with Paul Parsons. And a disciplined strong financial form it we've survived. Thanksgiving volume you look well Fred I've gone I think information that I've actually gone to the gym every day after that goes gosh knows I needed it. Do we at nice Thanksgiving I hope you agree gentlemen you all very very nice a great week we either my son's house I was first remember she is I don't usually like normal fish everything law don't we have graduated two boy we're. We're just kind of freeloaders and this is this is like bright open those days when you're. Kid goes off the payroll you know it's like us now we get to go to their house and I don't have to do it actually this is now we're talking paper eight and then the winless this. That's awesome that was pretty good actually yeah that's that's who we're truly tried for a while we have kids now someday want them to be all the FEMA employee get an android and able to feed that's absolutely right how's the job and can cook all subtle aren't true or is our order is the right gaffe so when we -- very nice things you really we know the best weather and we didn't get burdensome no no no real loss is seven years on cat was gone for seventy and sunny and I I was a little disappointed that well only you know sometimes you get out of Florida to enjoy seventy and sunny have not this year and tell them look slow alike you know great weekend for kind of what does that Cyber Monday a U I thought I don't fry day. But all things kind of molded into the through our days our. And I think people shops serve on line yes always you don't wait for Monday necessarily although they did may be a big game well you know white's biggest that are special deals most dangerous and I mean some of them can be really good deals like 203040%. Off something you're looking and you know if you set up a word on the right thing you can find out about it and get Enron and it's not a bad deal it's a reason why there's a lot of demand as we go. Poured into the program we will talk about how things look easy on the economy looks is certainly one of the parts of that is in its holiday shopping season and it's officially begun. And it will be going on through the net for the next month or so normalcy you know how much money being spent with the consumers are doing out there. What would you say based on what you saw with traffic over the weekend so far and your view you know Alex control even in that neighborhood zip code of the mall was crazy land carries absolutely people aren't backing off now from even the bricks and mortars and I think probably part of that tool is due to the fact that the weather is cold and you don't not exactly seventy and sunny so. It gives you some that do go out and and and do something like that but I do again I have always looked at. Mall traffic of laughter restaurant traffic. On to it as an indicator of the local economy and I'll tell you based on what I've seen in the last few days it's looking pretty good. You know he mentioned restaurants and that is true backward and things weren't so good all you have ten years yours so little less. You could walking to a restaurant remember those days I mean an end and they were happy to see you were happy to see it now yeah that's not necessarily true anymore and while they're so happy to see our it's a lot this is quite a bit busier right it's everywhere you go silhouette that's good as well will look into what the stocks and done. How the bond markets is well I guess the big picture is a mean here we are its sick another week killed he Donald Trump. Almost presidency and worried what that means for the economy we've seen the stock mark reduce some pretty crazy thing. Well you know crazy good yeah I'd rather be crazy good crazy bad and in all talk a little bit about that but that the thing I really one of the talk what I'm I'm. Actually gonna talk about. The trump presidency would covered awful lot of it but their actually a couple of sectors and areas that I think are incredibly important for investors don't know about. We're talk about those today. But I also wanna talk about sun it's really frankly weighing heavily on me and arm it it it really gets after two what's your overall investing strategy at this point are there areas that you either want to emphasize or you want a world war age and I have to tell you one area that I think gets. I'm a little bit less play than it should get by a on especially American investors and especially American retail investors. Is anything outside of America. And I wanna talk about that a little bit because it represents a obviously you know 60% of the GDP of the world and I wanna talk about specifically some one area's debt. Typically might be some in the UB ID much more twisted and dashing image that I am really more wary up and I'm gonna give you 45 good reasons why we're area now. All right so that's coming up let's start with. The US markets are markets bond markets will be seen of last week well as you know we hit all time highs with several major stock index access week which. You know if you had said the people at the beginning of this year remember the market was down attack but that and oneness in the market the S&P 500 was stoppage 10%. In the first six weeks 2016. How things have changed. I think about that you know was down at 1830. Or something 18301860. Somewhere around there we. It clutched when he 200. Money S&P 500 which is an index of 500 largest cap stocks United States. Just stunning. How much of a rebound outlaws and a good part of that is fuel because frankly of hope and optimism. Of what the trump presidency is gonna meat and again this is not a political show pleased. I understand this has nothing to do wit who you're rise like from a political viewpoint perspective. I get paid to manage people's money and what I will tell you is that there are number of factors about eight trump presidency debt our view fever plea by the equity markets right now. That's right Kara bachus frankly each that makes the wind it might Barack much more so one on investing my clients' money if if markets or remove option and that's good news for me and my clients and that's what I care about the most went about it in the European side were releasing them yet you know European stocks are about flat year to date and and -- it makes sense when you think about it our markets are up year to date around 8% including dividends. Arms so you know that's a pretty darn nice for term you think that our equity markets were down ten or 11% to beginning in them of the the year or so not only we will cover all of that but they're. Up 8% year to date now the international markets and the European markets have not. Our shared the same success and I'll talk about that a little bit more. But overall we are the bright. Spot not of the meet your develop markets out there. And frankly a lot of it I believe has to do with armed you know some of of the things that have been getting in the way of the economy expanding. There's the potential to they might be pushed aside a little bit and maybe we'll see more growth in GDP growth and specifically lower taxes. And fewer regulations IC I think are seen by the marketplace overall is very very positive for our our our markets and our on our economy what are on the ball inside. Well guess what if its stocks were up on bonds typically the price of bonds typically are down and they have done. On and you know there was a big sell off I'll win the trump. Presidency Ian bonds. I'll Wear it essentially risk gone on so people sat I'm willing to invest in stocks which means I wanna sell my bonds so the price of bonds went down and as the results are the yields on bonds are up a little bit the ten year US treasury now is trading right around 2.3 percent. Which if you told us that three weeks ago we would've fallen over because we had to close 2% since the beginning of the year right right and you know we were down as low as 141. Fine life this year and it's all the way back up to 2.2 percent now if you listeners out there that are saying all what is the sky talk about the splitting hairs. This is not splitting hairs when you talk about a ten year treasury changing by one point 51 point 6% up to 2.2 percent that is seemed massive move in the bond markets and it really reflects a change. In the underlying. Attitude. Our and the risk capacity for the market at that point that's really saying people. Our were acquiring to be paid more to not take more risks yeah okay. And what the US dollar continues to ask aren't there yet if any shank you know the US dollar now is a dollar six per you have per Euro. And you know again think about it pre election that was a dollar twelve downward dollar six were very close to the low point of where we've been in a long time here. And one of the stories I'm gonna talk about two very very shortly from now is the concept that there are those investors including city. US dollar continuing weakening. Offered bureau. And at the same time you know we're seeing that other. Our currencies are also weakening for example the yen is now 211. Yen per dollar was down as low as a hundred to 403 just a few weeks ago. And again that shows are real devaluation in the yen compared to the strength of the US dollar had a ball put oil. We did you know this week we you and I laughed about this every week it's toolbox operates two blocks around this week we had a two dollar up rally why. And guess what has to do with the Vienna conference on OPEC coming up I think it's November 30 Kenny that they get to gather our our and that the big news was that in that. The OPEC leaders in advance of the meeting. Have really tried to say Warrick we're gonna have a production -- cot. And it's not a huge cut but it's still cut from where they are today. They're producing right now about 34 million barrels a day talking about cutting it down to 32 wanna have to 33 million barrels day that's not a huge car crash but what it does represented is that all countries involved will actually sign up to quote and that includes Iran and Iraq granite hosts who have skin in the game you are in the area so what do we expect from them well. Iran obviously wants to regain its market share that it lost a when the sanctions were imposed break. And so they're saying well we'll talk and Iraq at the same time is fighting a war against nicest and they need to finance that war and they need to sells more to Willis they can't be able to look to finance that. So obviously they have skin in the game that's vital to their own national security. Not to be able to pay for what they're trying to get done having said all that at the it looks like they will be there's a higher probability of them reaching an agreement and even non OPEC countries have said again that they are interested in cooperating with that most notably Russia. All every week we get it tests the story and this week is no exception there's a tassel story in the Wall Street Journal that I think we should be paying attention. Well I figured I'd throw you a box at. You know as you said we talk about Tesla lot and and it's funny because the Wall Street Journal has a rich famous com call her on the street yeah. And the you know in the column make the he raised concerns about the ability of Tesla to continue its expansion plan that's now that's not news Tosh and you knock the tar brought to us for awhile but here's the punch line. The punch line is that Tesla has increased shares outstanding from 92 million in 2010. To almost a 160. Million today not a lot you know that's floating a lot more shares out there and potentially deluding. Existing shareholders' right now. And the court that in 07% increase in share Sean OK so either you're valuation. Of your company grows by 70%. Or your value per share are automatically goes down right. And so obviously people watch and listen to what Tesla has to say about will they be floating. Additional equity. And the answer wrist today. I Ilan mosque the head of Tressel said we're not gonna do that at least through the end of the year and maybe even beyond that in Q1. And the short answer on that is on the analysis that the Wall Street Journal did an her on the street was that that's unsustainable financially for the spending too much money. On rolling out their solar roof tile business of solar city rolling out the battery gig of factory next year and of course. What do you increasing their car production up to half a million cars per year by 2018. So the real question is can they do it without raising additional equity capital certainly the Wall Street Journal wanted to reach our flag saying they really are cautioning. Always come back we're going to tarred by the European Union and what American investors really need to know. That's swimmer returned its class strong financial form this just. All Parsons president of planned strong investment management and you're listening to them plans strong financial forum on WRKO. Boston's talk station. If you like what you hear on our show and what media take a look at your investments and retirement plan called my office. 80889727526. That's 888972. Plan. Securities and investment advisory services offered through metro metro group member and as I can sequester investment management and filling in this country grouping is located in Washington street domestically and six. Hi this is Avi Nelson. People use different strategies to acquire enough money for retirement. Some try to do it themselves. Others buy insurance or investment products though sometimes will benefit the seller more than the buyer what makes sense is to hire an advisor with first rate credentials and why do investment management experience. Should have a fiduciary obligation to act in your best interest. And be paid the same amount no matter watcher invested in if these things matter to you. Call Paul Parsons at planned strong investment management to learn more call 888. 9727526. Hiring the right advisor could be your best investment. Or visit planned strong dot com. Securities and investment advisory services opportunities didn't think members progress thanks in clinical and business management yeah residential roofing and you'll get into tiny Washington street Dedham mass. Crumbled plans strong broadcast studios of the epicenter of capitalism this is the plan's strong financial forum with the whole portions president of planned stronger investment management. And I Don Garber the anchor desk and a happy Black Friday weekend you'll. This sounds funny saying you know what is does Cyber Monday Black Friday I don't know what you're supposed to call they need a better yet I'm up for something better something catchy or I have some foreign students staying with us and as a minister do you before a this year and this concept of Black Friday. Because it just sounds bat yep darn nice try to explain to them no no it's a good thing right guy guys they can't quite buy into this all thank you don't. Like that. Have you heard that chip readers that that meet the noise won't once it's done right it actually makes a bad know something went wrong something went wrong actually and they need to change that noise for the exact same reason because the poor lady you are just out at a store recently doing it and and I put my chipping in and reads it. Annika at he had yeah I. And I said oh geez it was a sarge because I have to tell everybody who puts a chip from the era that actually that means goodness and they need to change the voice. The odds didn't it's funny you know they they they do it so that you don't forget to pull your card out. But I went you have to make it during noises that are happy noises and analysts are in order that would BR hey no I don't know something went wrong or not I hey year old on. I guess right. Let me just remind the listeners right now Paul that you're despite the fact it is Black Friday weekend and you may be busy shopping you should also be thing about it is couple things year end. And also the Donald Trump trump presidency which is impending it's on the way just couple months away and so. Paul wants you to know he's perfectly how did you sit down with you and offer you a second opinion argue positioned properly for a trump presidency postal free number eighty 9727526. 888972. Planned or go online and send an email to Armstrong dot com and police in with folks personally every for every meeting. Absolutely right I mean every meeting and you know just to give you an idea Kenny of the differences. In how he might say all I guess I'm an index funds it doesn't really matter these guys are all the same let me just for a one Kuo one number one statistic you. It's that's BS and 500 which is an index of 500 largest stocks in the United States. Arm is up about 3% sensed that it was science trump was elected on November 083. At the same time. The index of small and mid cap stocks is up 11%. Social three verses eleven and and at during the show today I'm gonna talk about why small cap stops stocks are up right now a lot of it has to do. We it. The perception of the market of what trump presidency means for them and it's more important to the value of those securities that it is to the largest companies and their associates securities that's the kind of stuff you need to know Brad when you think about what is this. Change means it's not just that everything's floating up all the same. That's not the case. This is why it's a good time to have a professional money manager. Looking your portfolio and offer a second opinion. The filtering number again eighty 89727526888972. Planned or drop an email at plans strong dot com. But all the EU is interest you right now and it looks to me like you're a little concerned about article report. You know and the question I get often for mark clients is okay what keeps up right now. And I might I think my real answer now has the most to do with the European Union. Arm and and for those of you were driving your car right now so I don't care about Europe. Well I should tell you something if you're in not in any kind of an investment that says. You know total market investment or even if your not in international stocks even if you're you're not in any European stock or an international stock or would or in a worldwide stock or anything like that you still should care because if you're. Falls apart if the European Union falls apart the United States. Can't help but. Being involved in that economically. And from a market perspective so you have to care about this. Europe you represents thirty to 40% of the GDP of the worldwide. Economy and they represented a big part of the marketplace. So if they have a problem. Ot it it's gonna spill over offs and so I wanted to talk about this because I am worried about Europe ranch and I'm more worried about the now than I was before trump was electorate is not interest lose interest and let me tell you why can't. There are a bunch first ball the trump election. Has in some ways kept the ball roll. Don't forget never accept. Occurred in the at the end of June this year right now and that was the first one where people say hey. So exposed to happen. Nobody predicted that the parliament was supposed to vote eighty you know 8020. To not have Britain leave and it was a referendum that Cameron had put in front of the British people. Fully expecting the British people to say not ordered a stay within the European Union and funny thing happened but people spoke and said now we don't share your view. On and on how to run this country and more Portland we don't share your -- -- relates to -- opening up our border -- and not having some say over our own jurisprudence. And you know that all of a sudden now we're gonna have courts that are located in the UK they're located in Brussels. And at that cost a big problem -- British people they they kind of invented the court system as we know not only that but I think some of the others are fierce independence of the drinks you know and and certainly goes back to World War II where the blitzkrieg and you know date when you know that there was that the darkest times for Europe and -- -- sat at you know -- and they answered the best ball now and they and they they came out and they got it done and I think based and again are looking at this whole Euro union thing in saying not so much we're not so sure we wanna sign up for that and so they voted to exit or Briggs yet I'm in June of this pasture that's gonna happen over the next two or 3 years I am not one of those people who says. Ono they're not gonna do that they are they're gonna leave and if they don't do what I really do believe you will see pitchforks and torches and the streets because the the popular vote voted for that I'm. That was the first and then you look at the the next major thing that happened was trump. We're again you know every poll known to man. Said that trump didn't have a play a chance and you know although you know did they said you know why that the Republican party's gonna be in disarray for years after this and is at the end of the Republican Party and also this stuff and again it was fiercely nationalistic. On and on it was me you know the whole maker take him make America great take you know beaten. Look at America's needs before you look at other people's needs right now and arm I it. It's struck a court with people and our shorn off trump one and so now you look forward to show wolf. How does that impact what else is gonna happen in Europe because here's the deal. If Europe has more major economies. Leave the European Union at some point breaks up. Okay now and if that happens here's what happens. You're gonna see significantly less economic activity in that region for awhile and why it's not Parsons openings is gonna happen believe that's the last hope for I hope for terrific economic growth in Europe and I'd invest in it nonstop. But that's not necessarily what's gonna happen. Here so let's look at what happened to Britain. And leaving the UK are leaving European Union rather forgive me. All of a sudden out you've got tens and hundreds of thousands of people who are French Australian. Yeah and naymick who work in London. And the question is will they be allowed to continue to work in London. And and continue to have a flow of labor back and forth on wigs and Britain no longer in the European Union. Probably not. And guess what. That's added uncertainties Obama company I'm gonna expand all of a sudden now to want to add people in London are to won't add them somewhere else in Europe it changes my plans it changes my ability to implement and to. Grow that economy quickly right. And so that's why it's a problem so now you look forward is so well what else is on the horizon was Britney only one don't have to worry about any other ones. And that's really the theme of this discussion I just wanted to kind of go through quickly are OK so let's start with the French and the French by the way it France's the second largest economy in the European Union behind Germany so it's a big talk. And they've been holding primary elections for their presidency. With the conservative wing trying to stop the rise. Of who they consider to be extremely far rate of marine look at. Now the candidates are trying to challenge the attractiveness. Of ms. Le pen would their own anti immigrant hard line security policies OK so they're trying to do what she's already advocated now here's a hint here this is going. Towards anti immigrant and hardline security once things Merkel says it is either the borders are open. Or their clothes and if they're not all open but neither rosy economy okay you're no longer remember the European Union from. And look panic. Saw the trump election win as an indicator that the global leads are losing power and hybrid direct quote from her that I wanted to share with listeners and here's the quote. If the French people. Also wish to re gain their independence. Wish to re gain control of their country. And wish to reinforce the elements of security. The borders the rule of law. Economic patriotism. Then I will be elected president she predicted it. So think about you know does that sound an awful lot like what trump just wore on it sounds like bricks in the sales dropped in dies and by the way. You know she's a pretty good position somebody on that side is in pretty good position. Not to challenge the that the status quo right now in in not France. So strike one and Francis a big draw sure OK speaking of big dogs. On December 4. There is going to be a vote in Italy Italy is the third biggest economy and European Union on and there they have a vote that really is a referendum. On the policies of the current prime minister but it goes deeper than that should the guy's not that popular because the economy hasn't rebounded as much as they'd like it tale and so it looks like it's likely that he's gonna lose. If that happens there's gonna be a safeguard government put in place but. Here's the deal that same guy was a big supporter of Clinton mom and he's viewed as being part of the mainstream establishment. If you will. Part of the problem while that sounds ominous fall when we come back door to us about the probability of this happening supporter strong financial form. This is Paul Parsons president of planned strong investment management and you're listening to them plans strong financial forum on WR KR plus news talk stations. If you like what you hear on our show and what needs to take a look at your investments and retirement plan called my office of ED ED 9727526. That's 888972. Plan. Securities and investment advisory services offered through metro metro group member to go as I can see classroom investment management is an affiliate business financial grouping is located in Washington street and Massachusetts. Hi this is on he Nelson if you're fifty or older here's a suggestion. Commit to getting your financial house in order over the years you worked hard took chances made sacrifices. And built up as much wolf as possible so you'd never run out of money in retirement. Well now. Now it's time to get organized and to make sure you have a financial plan will protect your retirement. If your financial life together. Call Paul Parsons at play and strong investment management. Just schedule financial checkup call 8889727526. That's 888972. Plan commit to getting your financial house in order call 888972. Plan or vision plan strong dot com. Securities and investment advisory services offered through next financial group pink member and SIPC plans to investment management does not an affiliate of not to mention grouping chemical can tiny beat Washington street Dedham mass. Says financial talk into your signing and be informative. At least it's informative it's Glenn strong financial forum where cold portions president's bold plans stronger investment management it's. And I'm Dan Garber is the anchor desk along with the ball Parsons little Q&A. Great Thanksgiving dinner enjoying your. Black Friday weekend or whatever we're calling sir that based gonna spend a little bit of money have some fun. Appalled we were not having a lot of fun last segment because he kind of scare me a little bit talking about. What could be happening to the EU the European Union. And you're giving a couple of points that led to quite frankly I haven't connected the dots to loosely you've you're doing that so can you pick up we're talking about France. Yeah I I started this by saying that. There are those who don't think that Britain is gonna leave the European Union okay and I I frankly I have a hard time understanding how that could happen without their being a real problem in the streets and Brandon. And I talked about the French. And that the French are going to their primary process and it should be a little troubling at least to some people. That that the two leaders right now are the opposition party are pretty darn. A popular with people are and they are in a certainly proposing something long line of having a referendum. On France's use of the Euro currency and even leaving European Union. Yeah so. You know warning sign there. And then I said well let's not always talked about that let's talk about Italy because Italy is a big vote coming up on December 4 we just you know one week we can apple way right. And in that case. You have the current prime minister who's not very popular right now and if you look at the last group of holes that worked on. Right before they they're actually the two week period before an election where the you are not allowed to publish the results of any polls OK and so they just finished that period before now current and it you know it shows that this guy looks like he's gonna lose the existing prime minister is gonna lose the vote between eight to twelve points off so acts like a pretty good spread. But you know I unless these guys followed the same polling techniques is what we used during the United States with Troy I would guess at that means that this guy's gonna loose and a few loose as she's out. To resign. And that means that. You don't interim government would go one place but it also means that. The economic platforms. That dom. That would likely be included. Will include this group called the five star movement party and the parties reforms include renegotiating. Italy's debt and calling a non binding referendum. On the Euro itself OK so that's big change serious stuff and just so you know them Deutsche Bank forecasts a 20% decline in European stocks. If this event were to occur. And by the way Italian government bonds would get beaten up badly. So. You know obviously they're a bunch of steps that have to happen for this to occur and be an arm government does. If the five star movement party gets as much traction is the Cink hit my eight. But overall Kenny this is you know warning signs and big flag dropped their red flag out their take a look Italy could be migrating in this direction to kind of just nationalist movement to. It's already happened and England and you think it's going to continue to happen France is starting to look. Possible or probable yup you believe now is coming into play yup and this vote wasn't intended to be daddy and this news was the right to vote was discount never had you seen what's happening there. But what are there any other countries do we worry about. They're raw. Armed and that is the direction almost people say who cares it's such a small country it's not a lot of people doesn't matter that much. But it does. On because it's an incredibly important time for European Union. And rate now that the big thing that's happened in in in with the Dutch is stay indeed recently adopted a law that requires a referendum be held for any matter. And that 300000. People express an interest and so what this means don't forget any kind of of legislation or activity that the European Union wants the past. Past the past with the legislatures. Of all of the member countries will now. Each time one of those proposals comes through. As long as 300000 Dutch people say Hayworth trusted and that they if the whole referendum on it and they did it already once we Ukraine and being part of European Union and guess what the people voted no are. And so you know this also is becoming a real issue and there is a group with the end. The Dutch government that looks like it's taking more and more control and guess what they represent. Nationalist right hand out in a much more our border security and so forth so here this is just yet another country that could really pose a problem and this is coming soon. This is coming in March it. Now Merkel is kind of the is the head of the EU at this point I feel like he's just he's the one who always speaks for it Kaplan we hearing from her well should ship big news this week too she said she's gonna run again here. And and she's gonna run for fourth term. And but what was a little bit scary to me and and this has to do would our politicians listening. Are they really paying attention and check called this week that I wanted to share will listeners she said. I know exactly how to continue it's not about correcting anything. That's scary quote and I mean look at that that the point of the dominoes are falling here. And unless and until you recognize that there is validity. To what these people look concerned about your watch this thing blow up for an and you know if you don't think there's any merit to what I just said take a look at what's happened to the Democrats over the last 63 years. Don't forget that in 2008. But Democrats in the United States. Had the presidency. In the senate did the house and it up on your governor shots and you fast forward what eight yours and they don't have any of those thinks and it's been this constant. In dot you know monologue frankly of hey we know battery and you guys just don't know what you're talking about sounded an awful lot like what Merkel set again this doesn't have to do with whether or not I agree with her disagree with their I'm trying to read the tea leaves as to whether or not the European Union is gonna stay together or not humorous if it doesn't stay together economically they're gonna be short term implications to what debtor and I mean net. I for one and knocked a one invest there are all hackable I'm right and this is this seems to be a populist ball has been rolling since spray accident. This and right through to trumpet in several now countries in your who claim they're involved as well absolutely manic look out my position isn't the only position but I'm saying few Beers enough smoke here now that is an ingests Turks. I'm advising my clients that there's enough smoke here to be very wary of and to watch and hopefully I'm wrong. But I'm becoming more and more wary of this region because it's not just the British now it's the French. Now what's the deal Italians and the direction and even Merkel who is who was quite popular in our country. Is is less popular now she had a very bad man eight. On this past year when when not a bunch of her own our group lost a lot of seats within her own parliament so. I have to tell you have this is concerning and I think as investors EU should be concerned. We talked about the Euro earlier and is are we seeing good do you think the drop in the Euro the weakening Euro is part of this is Bhopal I do not I think especially PC the Euro dropping to parity you're below what I mean as I said city. Is forecasting that the euro's going to be at 98 cents US dollars a year in the next six to twelve months now some of that's good for the European economy because it means their exports are cheaper. But it also can be bad for the European economy because. Don't forget that they have to buy a dollar denominated imports like oil breakers there are a big importer of oil they don't know manufacturer a lot of oil produced a lot of oil in Europe for example. So you know this could be a problem for them build worsen it could happen when Europe right now is for them to continue to have economic growth problems you know people. When things aren't going well that's when you get now the populace to revolt or to say changes necessary we seeing any good news out of Europe that's a good question we'll. You know there are a couple of places. Obviously you know for example parents have a story last week where they talked about five ingesting up opportunities within Europe and you'll look the Pratt the basic premise is pretty straightforward access. US stocks are pretty pricey. Emerging markets are firmer early targets of the anti trade rhetoric that you've heard within the United States. And so European stocks are undervalued. And somewhat attractive so what he SA. Is kind of the play tonight I'd say do you you know you need to be wary there's certainly some risks associated witnessed some political risk would certainly be at the top of the top of the the list. What are we seeing from our European earnings you know OK that's a really good question because as we all know earnings. Play a big role in that weather stocks do well or do poorly and their earnings are improving when it's off a low base. Earnings have been declining year over year for the past several years and it looks like 2017 is finally gonna be Euro positive growth. And they're talked about growth of eight to 13% in corporate earnings. And for a lot of the reasons it's happening in the United States commodity prices were covering is certainly towards the top of the list. So what I it's eighty USR I think it's improving. Earnings story and that could help them but boy there's some political risk would Europe that is concerning. Always come back give a story of low taxes that food should be paying attention to before your hand and LC promised to cover small cap stocks when we return. It's a play as strong financial form. This is all Parsons president of planned strong investment management. And you're listening to them plans strong financial forum on WRKO. Boston's talk stations. If you like what you hear on our show and what need to take a look at your investments and retirement plan called my office of 808897275260. That's 888972. Plan to. Hi this is Avi Nelson. People use different strategies to acquire enough money for retirement some try to do it themselves. Others buy insurance for investment products though sometimes will benefit the seller more than the buyer what makes sense is to hire an advisor with first rate credentials and why do investment management experience. Should have a fiduciary obligation to act in your best interest. And be paid the same amount no matter what your invested in if these things matter to you. Call Paul Parsons at planned strong investment management to learn more. Call 888. 9727526. Hiring the right advisor could be your best investment. Or visit planned strong dot com. Securities and investment advisory services offered through next financial group and member former SIPC plans to investment management is not an affiliate of next mention grouping and is located at 980 Washington street Dedham mass. Ground zero for your financial news and economic commentary. This is the plan's strong financial forum where all portions president of home plans stronger investment management. It's. Religion are very happy anchor desk along with the ball Parsons let me just remind your postal free number we've been doing so much talking today we don't have much time do it this year that number is a lot of information calls unforced. There is still free number. 80889727526. That's eighty 8972. Plan. And as we approach the year and this is the time to call Paul. Sit with all his team. Did to get a second opinion are you positioned correctly going forward for trump presidency are you positioned correctly for the end of the year which is coming up very quickly let's get 889727526. Or go online plans strong dot com. And let me add one more to that can. Are you are you positioned properly with your overall worldwide investing extra time you know do you have exposure to Europe right now give the right amount of exposure to Europe how but other international markets did you know that Europe exports by 40%. Of of what they may worldwide word is that doll what would happen if they slowed down. He got to think through this stuff because they're winners and lows and and especially with the information we just heard about the EU that Paul thinks is elude trouble right now. But certainly there's more risk there are what arms really suggesting to investors is being wary I think it's somewhat under reported because. I think we are somewhat American centric. When it comes to our new Lewis and if you're an investor you can't afford to be that I did that's why you hire an investment manager unless you have a real curiosity about it. And just wouldn't even the way we've attacked this story that we've talked about today Kenny. It's not just oh hey I think it's probably good idea treated me you know look twice at you're your investments that are international. I really try to give listeners an idea of what's going on within these countries and what the probabilities are those events. And having said that it's hard to handicap any probability we had difficulty with a are in on our own presidential election sure but I got to tell you one thing. It's nice to know there's some if there's some mob smoke out there its nice to know their smoking how much smoke because at least then you you can brace yourself you can try to prepare your portfolio for either. Of the up potential outcomes. To assume that ball and his team a DD 89727526888972. Plan or to score in mind to plan strong dot com you can send an email and they'll get right back to you on Monday. Paul you you live Internet attacks story an important one as we approach year and do what we learn about that. Don't die before when he seventy approach they don't write that down note to self yeah gone. You'll remember for what Euro was the tour member one there was no was Steve. Axel one year are yes and and there was some personal affront as somebody very famous. Who had a tremendous amount of money. And they died in that you're in their like even the guy died at the right time right in our area well I'm I'm knocking suggests that the reason why I say that is because. There is discussion about whether or not there's going to be an estate tax are going for at least on the federal level and and and even they are unfortunately there's misinformation. Out out deer in the world about what this year's. On I will tell you it's not a redistribution. I will tell you that what trop has proposed has been. Something around eliminating the estate tax in the war changing the estate tax or that there is no longer. If you will holiday a step up in basis upon the person's death and that it it down I heard I heard the other day people talk about that saying oh that's an impact a lot more people in fact. The proposal would trump parents out there right now is that that would even care cancel you have in the state of of by ten million dollars plus may be nor OK so it's not going to be hitting most phone Knox is not even close. But I didn't wanna talk about a state tax today what I wanted to talk about instead worked things that you can actually control and things that might be worth the war you are if you take action today and there are really three things but I wanted to emphasize and they they. Are the results. Of the proposals. That trump and others have been discussing and the big and that their talking about. Is tax deductions and whether or not they're gonna be allowed to continue or will only be capped so one is will they be limited for example I have deductions of a 100000 dollars or 200000 dollars is a limit now another one might be hey we're just knock on on allow for more rock and allow you to deduct mortgage interest deduction anymore okay that kind of thing so by the way that is not proposed OK so let me go through what they are. Arm filers may want to accelerate major tax deductible. Gifts this year and the reason they may wanna do this. Is because. Of the cat yeah not on the proposals no one. On charitable contributions as a deductible transaction what they are talking about some of the different. A scenarios include a cap on that old saying he wanted to give half a million dollars to your alma mater. Something like that. You may wanna do that this year to get the full benefit of getting that full deduction rather than having that deduction limited. 200000. Or 200000. Some RBC major gets it is is what we're talking about here and by the way there's a thing called ended to owner or advisor fund an awful lot of people know about this but again if you're gonna make a major gift like that you could make the major gift to would donor advised on. And it doesn't have to be distributed this year are to where you want to distribute it you've made the gift to the donor tries or fonts and so it's already left your state. And as a result you get the charitable a deduction this year. But you can spread it out over several years thereafter. To where you really want a deal. So anyway if this is interesting to you talked your tax professional because if you think about making a major gift then you may want to do with this year would be make sure that you maximize the benefit you get from that from attacks perspective and what else while another one is the deductions for state and local taxes. May be just coming to one patent. So you know if you live in California or me your mental or Jews ask. That you assess our then guess what you know that could be a real problem there are no longer gonna have that. So one thing you may wanna do is pay off any remaining 26 teen balances. That art do OK so at least you get that benefit for this year in there is something about mortgage interest yes and nobody's talking about that I've read. Is talking about eliminating the mortgage interest deduction but. It may be minimized and again subject to that cap that we talked about earlier this same missed that charitable contributions cap brain. Arm and it's but here's the here's the difference would it really means is if you're considering. Buying a property today and you doing meets by the financial analysis of whether or not you can afford it. I would this home. That you do not get a mortgage interest deduction from now and that it will will obviously be the most conservative case set another way don't count on the full mortgage interest deduction especially if you're considering a very expensive piece of property market and of course. As multi matters folks should talk to the tax professional. Yeah I need her I horn next financial ma a my broker dealer or our tax professionals you all we should seek out professional tax advice when you start to ex keep strategies. All you mentioned at the beginning of the program that certain sectors. That might be doing better under a trump presidency in particular you referred to. Small cap stalks or so what's in store sharp you know what we mentioned was that small cap stocks cents trumps election. Are up 11%. Mom and you know what does that two weeks ago Kenny and one half Mexico. And at the same time large cap stocks short in 03% or so and so small cap stocks the market anticipates it looks ahead at says who could benefit from changes that are now coming. And it makes sense when you think about small cap stocks and trump because don't forget he's proud to be the champion of the little guy right. He he's essentially said hey we're gonna have more protectionism. And less global trade. On and what that means is from a small company that just doesn't impact me is Martin doesn't hurt my sales as much if in fact if anything. You know people are gonna buy more my stuff because it's domestically made. Don't forget small cap companies only export about 20% of their sales and while large caps export greeted and horror of their revenues overseas so small cap companies. Art art in much better shape to really take advantage of a trump presidency and there were a bunch of other reasons too. That really compound the benefit the small cap companies get let me give you coupled house. First the ball trump has said that he's gonna cut the corporate tax rate to 15%. That's going to be a major benefit to small companies you know why because they don't have the resource it is. Aren't to be able to maneuvered her way through the tax code to get your tax rate doubts that they're paying 35%. A lot faster than large cap companies you know what the average tax rate is for a large cap company owner in the teens are OK yeah so small cap companies 15% it's gonna be a lot more back in their own pockets. They're gonna have less regulation that's gonna benefit small companies which are you know again less able. To have compliance staff send work their way around all of all these are regulations. And by the way one other thing. The prospect for higher inflation. Means that cost cutting that usually is only in the domain of the really big companies 'cause they have things they can actually caught room. What they don't have to worry about that much woods and if inflation kicks and because you're not going to have to cut costs this much so to be able to maintain your march its. And didn't occur mean from Ron Paul the small caps haven't done as well over the last few years as large county you'll radon again candy what does that mean small caps are more reasonably valued right so there's more upside to them without pushing their valuations. Well a lot of great information this week we really appreciate you coming in on on Black Friday weekend and hope we have a great Thanksgiving weekend Bruce the weekend in the central our listeners. The scene actually sounds great it's less strong financial form. This is Paul Parsons president of planned strong investment management. And you're listening to them planned strong financial forum on WRKO. Boston's talk station. If you like what you hear on our show and what they need to take a look at your investments and retirement plan called my office of 808897275260. That's 888972. Plan. Securities and investment advisory services opportunity for them to prevent remembered today as I can see classroom investment management is an affiliate business financial group think including new. Any Russian diplomats and six Castro investment management is located at nine ED Washington street Dedham mass or to go to cynics would be reached at 889727526. Securities and investment advisory services offered through next financial group ranked number fender SIPC -- investment management is not affiliate in its financial group think this radio show is for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation recommendation that any particular investor should purchase or sell any particular security information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness or not guaranteed neater next financial groupings nor represented to provide started.