Planstrong Financial Forum 01-21-17
Jan 22, 2017|
"Smart investing, simplified"
Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.
Remote play and stroll in the broadcast studios he would still play and strong employment to a forum. We've your host. Ken carver and the president Roh plans strong investment minimum. Full portions it's time Bruce Morton investing. Symbian phone. And I am Canterbury is the anchor desk along with Paul Parsons went strong financial format and Paul welcome back to the pro. That's terrific to be here it's it's a new era it is structured and yesterday in Washington DC and so's time we have to think about. What does this mean for me what does that mean for my portfolio what does it mean for my investments. Should we sure look at my portfolio with a similar looked at it during the Obama years that exactly right questions they are to Larry's big questions are we an address or of these going forward and also as we discussed last couple weeks ball it's the beginning of a new year which means the end of last year and the quarter ended the year. He probably already have your statements and if you if you didn't you'll be getting them very soon. And we talked a lot about the fact that folks don't really know what to make of these statements. It really book pretty confusing you've and you've told us that there are reasons for that through legal reasons for that act. Absolutely and and it it's not intentional and that frankly it's to protect. It in and iron in so many words from what. Investors actually see as not just their actual returns but what they should compare their returns to cash and I know we've talked about this for a few weeks now but I just can't emphasize this enough that. So few people really do know what they should compare their actual performance against him and you know. Before you do you're a little too happy with your own performance and you say. Oh I made 6% last year and that's fine you know you on a move on to the next thing in your life from. Just think about it I if you're a 100000 dollar account are and and you made 6% and you should've made. You know 8%. Well that's who thousand dollars okay didn't should've made it didn't make. And you know particular to swipe how many times if you saw 2000 dollars lying on the street just say I'm too busy. I don't I don't I don't think I'm interested in picking up that you know that that money toward right and so. When I think about it it it's really important for people to not only understand how they did perform. And like I say it's so much easier and an op market can just say well you know I did okay and I mean 6% and 80% or whatever are. Armed and say guys listen not I know that the the S&P 500 which is an index of 500 largest publicly traded stocks nag State's. It may 12% but. Hey I made ten I thought you know tens got it tends better than nothing right right and all likened Sadie US. I would look at it that way I would look at it by the way ten may be fantastic. Because you vote portfolio that is comprised. Of a 100% US stocks for example it could be a portfolio that's intended to be much more conservative than that. And if that's the case but perhaps seven or 8% would've been a horrific return and the fact that you made ten is incredible. Are the corollary that's also true which is hey you're a 100% US stock portfolio. You should have made twelve and you made ten. Well you just left you know our 2% on the table and 2% on unlike the milk. 2% counts in investing again. You know you say okay on a 100000 dollars that's 2000 dollars on a million dollars us 20000. Dollars that's a lot of money. Perhaps I made what seems like a good number. But perhaps it was too much risk for what I'm but I'm looking for in my age my place so close into retirement or just story accessing the fondest or give right getting all the fun so yeah. And that risk is something that perhaps. Is better here and then the some of those numbers. Is that that's that's familiar numbers and that's something that's it especially difficult. Art again you know we have a way of showing our investors that we actually show them. What the air return. Should have been at the level of risk that they had so so vs. What they actually need at their level of grasp. But again and what's hard on all of these statements is actually not just describing your your actual returns the easy one okay that's easy to calculate. I assume you made no contributions. Is started with action you ended with YY divided by X minus one is. Is your percentage gain a guy that's just not tough to figure mechanic but what is more difficult to quantify is okay but how much risk that you take and we have a way of quantifying that there's actually some standards that we use in our industry. To quantify risk so it's not just oh we took a lot for a little know it's much more qualified that you're actually a number for that and then same thing with how you should've gotten at that same level Rask. So and by the way the other thing that I like to talk to people bottle little that is it's not just one period. It's not you know three months or last month or last year for that matter. I would strongly encourage. To look at your performance. Over tour three years and and it especially makes sense given the fact that they don't take about 2015. Not a terribly Goodyear in most markets rating right 2016. Pretty Goodyear and right and so. How did I do a lousy year or not so good your heart and adorning Goodyear. And look at it over a period of time I'd sure you know if you could go back three worst 201420152016. And say. How to it ideal how much of the upside today capture how much of the downside did I avoid. I'm at my level of risk if you can answer that question and you really know the answer to how you actually did perform whether you manage the money. Or someone managed money for you get ahold of Paul the. UV is still for number right now eighty 89727526. That's 888972. Plan. And Paul will sit with you Paul and his team will sit with you and what you know is this number the right number for you did you hit what you wanna do it. With the appropriate number of amount of risk was again eighty Dade 9727526. And that the website is planned strong dot com and. You know we'll tell you not only did you hit it for this period you know this year for example but how do over the last three years and how did you do a good market and I'm not so good market those are very very important questions to really evaluate either your own performance or the performance of those were managing money for you what's against him no obligation no cost meeting EDD 9727526. Our poll let's look a little bit at the business news stories of the week and keep the first new story of course was inauguration the inauguration yup but. Let's let's just look at what happened in the markets start aren't sure aren't in yet you know first of all it was say holidays sure shortened trading another bright because we had Monday off. So was just four days Tuesday through Friday of trading stocks were you know flat to down a little bit you know call a half a percent in the US. And international socks for are a little bit more call at 1% for international stocks. But year to date the S&P 500 which as I mentioned before an index of 500 largest publicly traded stocks the United States. Is up about 1%. You might say well 1% Dion but. 81%. You know here we are January 21 or whatever it is. And you know we're not one month in and we've already made 1%. Multiply that by twelve. That's that's a very nice annualized numbers bears I'm not a lot of people I think would accept a 12% return smile like us so. Our year to date RBS and 500 up 1% while international stocks are actually up a little bit more even and a after the week they had this past week. And by the way don't forget. Many of the US indexes are very very close to their all time highs. And that's been going on for for for a while on the capsule while as we've just been bumping up against them ever since the you know like not the inauguration election brighter and so and that's another thing we're looking forward. We saw what happened post election so will be seeing actually what happens post inauguration and that's gonna get interest thing you know because it's one thing to kind of trade on hole and what you think may happen right. Are it's another thing to actually see what the reality disc and an ice you know and how are effectively. Are some of these ideas actually gonna get implemented or not implement it is is congress going to be helpful or aura are obstructionists will at some things that bet trop is trying to deal. Will he get through his cabinet picks that he wants to get through it will he be able to do some things he talked about doing on day one you know pick about it. He wants to immediately get out that that TPP. He wants to eat every renegotiate. Or leave a NASCAR. I mean these are very important things that he wants to do on day one and it's gonna be interesting to see whether or not it actually can be XEQ it splashing the timeframe that he's indicated he'd like to deal. What are the ball inside receiver once last week interestingly even though stocks were down a little bit so for the price of bonds in other words the yields on bonds actually went up. A little bit this week. And you know the tenure US treasury is treating we deals. Right around 2.4 5% that's up about ten basis points or point 1%. From last week. And similar yield increases. Art work sprints on the other major developed international bonds for example. I yields on the ten year German. Are now it point 4% up from point 3% again it's ridiculously low but they're up a little bit. And even the Japanese ten year now she is author of zero and it's up to point 1% while gas. Now that's amazing out of the out of the negatives and off the zero and and what's fascinating about it is that's actually higher. Than what the bank of Japan's target off for the ten year is at this point. On and one last thing. I always follow to see what's the probability. When you're looking at interest rates what's the probability of that bill a US fed raising interest rates. In the coming meetings and we can actually look meeting by needing to see what the in the probabilities are by looking at. Armed financial futures contracts symbols are looking at that but the betting line for the football game it is an X actually quite simple because it's no longer opinion it's actually people betting with money right okay. And the Fed Funds futures actually indicate now that itself. Higher probability. That the Fed will increase US short term rates in May rather than Joan remember right so for quite awhile the first three weeks of this year so far at least I'd said. Hey it looks like Jones the first Al rate increase now looks more probable that may could be a first read increased. Why does that matter if you own long term bond it's. And you have interest rates going up on the short end of the curve. Many times they bleed over to the long and that occur and if interest rates go up on the long end of the curve and you won't existing long term bonds. A bunch became more class. I'll carry on we can basketball gonna ask about US dollar oil prices and some of the government data that's coming out of last week it stuff investors need to know. Also for number 8889727526. It's supply and strong financial form. This is ball Parsons president of planned strong investment management. And you're listening to the plan's strong financial performance WRKO. Boston's talk stations. If you like what you hear on our show and what needs to take a look at. Your investments and retirement plan called my office of EDD 89727526. That's 888972. Plan to. Hi this is Avi Nelson. Others buy insurance or investment products though sometimes will benefit the seller more than the buyer what makes sense is to hire an advisor with first rate credentials and why do investment management experience. You should have a fiduciary obligation to act in your best interest. And be paid the same amount no matter watcher invested in if these things matter to you. Call Paul Parsons at planned strong investment management to learn more call 888. 9727526. Hiring the right advisor could be your best investment. That's 888972. Plan or vision plan strong dot com. Securities and investment advisory services offered through next financial group pink member tumor SIPC plans to investment management is not an affiliate of next mention grouping and is located at ninety to Washington street denim. It's. OK okay. Okay. It's. It's. But I'm strong broadcast studios at the epicenter of capitalism this is no plans strong on national forum with the all portions president of planned stronger investment management. And I'm Ken carver and the anchor desk along with Paul Parsons is alone one. Handsome man thank you are currently you for noticing. Well I figured I should does your wife sure as they conduct no hope it's. Not all wheel in a actually I get more handsome the more chores into yeah. Yeah I actually you know what I do gill and a and it's being Saturday. You know I hope you got I'm Don you have well you know if you're blue dress marketed product do you brag aft do you do which sure I do my age you I take pictures I stride post the bond prices or the and and my wife looks at me like really really I do this all now are all day on Saturday and Sunday and and I do you know three things and she's like really pat on the back and I might. I do actually got a local got to be that they. If I guess is GI thing like it is there anyway whatever so another guy I think sometimes ball and it's also a lady thing is is what we get our year end statements out. We look at it's that time a year and yeah they're coming in now and enough and we see that in the numbers at all okay we just toss it in the pile it okay and we move on so did okay that we do those chores we're talking about because this doesn't seem to be nagging at us right now but I mentioned in the last segment. Is there a couple thousand dollars on the ground would you walk past it is even feel like picking it up. Right enemy couple thousand dollars 400000. Dollars that you investment if you're like half a million dollar brokerage account and you wonder performed by 2% that's. Ten thousand dollars thank you that would you stop and pick up 101000 dollars. The site and might even drive to yeah it's always important as you only like I write you up. I've spent some time that timber and so this is the kind of thing that Paul and his team are happy to help do it because. Basically as we talked earlier in the benchmark and the various benchmarks are used we get these statements ball they can be confused. Well they don't first of all they don't even give you a benchmark against which to compare your actual returns and they give you a lit. As an Cingular benchmark your bread they give you a list that's pretty bright and what other benchmarks so strongly indexes that are the bottom of your statement or you know located somewhere on the statement I guarantee you you're gonna find not just your performance but the performance of the litany. Of different kinds of investments during the same period of time the index of those. And the problem as well what awake compare my actual return to what's it's fair to compare to and if you don't think it matters like about it this white. US stocks last year may 12%. Okay international stocks make 4%. And bonds if there were high quality bonds may 21 half percent so. You know what you know say you made 9%. Did you do well. Well it's somewhere between twelve until right you know and maybe GAAP but should you what if you were. You don't 90% US stocks are Jewish should juve made 8% should gimme 10%. You might say I it doesn't matter Paul's 2%. 2% on half a million bucks is ten. Thousand dollars that matters to me and by the way if you don't need the 101000 box please just send to Haiti cannot and I can only and I would love to have the extra 101000 dollars okay. Also for number 8889727526. That's 8088972. Plan or go online to plans strong dot com. And the other thing I find is that it's not just the composition of your portfolio see you say are well from 90% US stocks and on 10% bonds. Well what kind of box and what kind us you know you say US stocks but are there a small caps are today. Tom more mature more big companies like yes and 500. So much of that matters as it compares to you know what are you actually gonna compare your performance still and that's what what should then I mean. Save your 901090%. Stocks 10% bond's yield a conservative profile conservative risk outlook so you won the game you've got two million box and play and all you want. Is to make you know 4%. I just want my 4% leave me alone. I need the 80000 bucks a year to spin off the two million box and all be good just don't lose the two million box right well if that's invested 90% and stocks like it's a bad news for you know. You know every once in awhile you're gonna see not just a 10% decline what's called a correction and artists must. You're gonna see you know what twenty or 30% correction and those are the kinds of situations where that two million boxed. No just lost 30% of its value which for those of you that struggle with math that's 600000. Dollars okay. That's a big difference from so it's not just what did you actually do. And I also calculating what you should've Don it's are also are you at the appropriate level of risk for your portfolio and finally. Over a period of time how did you deal did you do well in a good market did you do well on a bad market you would do well in all markets. If you did if you exceeding your benchmark. In good and bad markets I'd say touched out. Good for you but I would argue that most people that's not going to be the case. And finally one last thing the I believe the only way you can actually accomplish that is by actively managing Portland what say actively I don't mean you're making trades every week what I mean is you adjust your portfolio when there's a change in presidential administrations with radically different priorities. On and and policies so if you're portfolio looks the same now that it did a year ago. President Obama's policies and priorities are clearly different. Dan now president trumps policies and priorities and I have to tell you that absolutely impacts the performance. Of different geographies different sectors and so forth. And reviewed last looked at what you had three months ago six months ago or so chances are. Those determinations were made. Assuming Hillary Clinton as president just based on what we knew that absolutely right consumer do you say is if you keep it that way you're missing arm monologue I believe that's the case and perhaps risking a lot as well I believe that's the Q citizen with Paul and his semen find out what you made what you should have made in what you could make corn forward when she gives him a call eighty 89727526888972. Plan or go online to plan strung dot com to no obligation no cost. Meeting with Paul and his team Paul attends each had one of those meetings and they can explain this to you show you the number and that number that ball said did that one number that could really help rather from 3040 members of the block statement. 8889727526. Our balls were talking about some of the news some of the business stories of the week and not what about the US dollar house up and doing. You're the dog US dollar remained relatively constant moral vs the Euro weakened a little bit against the yen right now it's trading around a dollar sex per Euro and its trading around a 115. Yen per US dollars so still very the yen has very weak compared to the US dollar but a little bit stronger this week and last week. Oil has been a little bit to open them and it had lawn and you know what else is new Harry. It's it's it's an awesome lady between fifty and 55 dollars a barrel now for arts say 66 weeks or eight weeks at least so far. And I'd expect it frankly to continue in that range. What we're seeing now are. Prices dropped two blocks this last week per barrel. To about 51 per barrel for west Texas around 54 per barrel for Brent crude and part of the reason drop was because crude inventories were up about two million barrels this week they still represent about a 7% increase over the same level last year or so. They're higher now than they were last year that's gonna certainly depress prices to a degree. Some government do not a lot of over the last week what do we learn it now on you know last week's government data was pretty good I would I it's a dissenting was true with this week. As far as the headline numbers but if you look under the headline numbers. Up probably good idea listen up to some of what I'm about to say. Our consumer prices were actually okay so CPI that most people know what CPI is the Consumer Price Index. A showed reasonable inflation around point 3% month over month. And around a little over 2% Euro for Europe that's very much in line with producer price inflation we talked about last week right. And it's also one line of what the Fed is trying to target for inflation why is that important. Because that's what the feds looking at when they try to decide at when am I gonna raise interest rates. Why does that matter. If you have a fixed income portfolio and you're ignoring when rates are noticeably gonna go opera down. Then you are missing out on on opportunities and Od. Here's the deal it was. Driven up by a surge in utilities which is part of industrial production not manufacturing. And by the way for manufacturing. That output increased about point 2% mark the Vermont seats are well it's pretty good you know annual license 21 half percent. But most of that gain was related to auto manufacturing if you get an auto manufacturing can common golf okay. So when you remove auto manufacturing. It actually was flat though Vermont so it wasn't nearly as good or as robust. As what that the headline. Report might initially make you believe that was the case but. Having said that tooth other things I wanted to mention about this and again one has to do with the inflation. Capacity utilization is something that's reported when they talk about industrial production. Why you need to know how much of your capacity you're using because here's the deal if from a manufacturer. Armed and use my lowest cost manufacturing. Facilities first and then why because I maximize my margin when my profit margin rate and then. I have a lot of demand for my goods and services although I have to fire up some of the equipment that this may be old her isn't quite as efficient it costs more Iran right well what is that true do that's stokes inflation. And so what we're seeing is capacity utilization is currently at 75%. That's nowhere near the 78%. Or so you typically see when you're gonna really start to see more inflation underlying inflation really start to fuel and so what does it mean for the Fed. Well you had in one case consumer prices were up okay console for probably reasonable inflation. But industrial production and capacity utilization isn't so high that you're seeing rampant inflation so I'd say so far the Fed is probably looking at this and saying. A controlled. Measured increase. If in rates probably still fits the bill also relates to the data that we're seeing Rick and there was a survey a mid Atlantic and yes that was actually a bright note the mid Atlantic states have been kind of down on the doldrums for awhile and the Philadelphia fed does a report and actually dean had strong manufacturing conditions in January that was really welcomed NATO's housing starts they were good they were up about up to about one point three million you might say. Paul what are you talking about that's not good well its all good you know compared to what I think if it this way. When on that we recruited very height of the housing bubble you're mutant school million. Do houses were being built a year but at the depths of the recession that number was down to three or 400000. Word one point three million right now that's pretty good number. Always come back we'll talk about the Mexican peso Europe and fangs it's the plans from financial four. This is tall Parsons president of planned strong investment management. And you're listening to them planned strong financial performance WRKO. Boston's talk station. If you like what you hear on our show and what media take a look at your investments and retirement plan called my office of 80889727526. That's 888972. Plant. Securities and investment advisory services offered through an extra two group member to go as I can sequester investment management is an affiliate of mismanagement grouping concluded that any Russian diplomats include. Hi this is Donnie Nelson. If you're fifty or older here's a suggestion. Commit to getting your financial house in order over the years you worked hard took chances made sacrifices. And built up as much wealth as possible so you'd never run out of money in retirement. Well. Now it's time to get organized and to make sure you have a financial plan. Who protect your retirement. If your financial life together call Paul Parsons had planned strong investment management. A schedule financial checkup call 8889727526. That's 888972. Plan commit to getting your financial house in order. Call 888972. Plan or vision plans strong dot com. Securities and investment advisory services offered through next financial group linked member tumor SIPC plans for investment management is not an affiliate of next financial group think and cocaine and I need to Washington street Dedham mass. Says financial dogs can be exciting and important. At least informative its plans on financial forum where bowl portions president's bold plans stronger investment management yeah. And I'm Karen Carter at the anchor desk along with a ball Parsons it is a class drug financial performance. Once again balls toll free number 8889727526. That's a DD 972 planned or go online to plant strong guard common sentiment emailed to you right back Q this is the army year you should. Scheduled meeting to go over. What is happening to your urine statements all is as mean these are the questions you need to ask what did I make what should I have made. It's it's confusing thing you do that statement so as we've been discussing this is the time to take a look at those statements. Bring them to Paul on his team to explain them do you election are you did if you do the vote as well as you should have done given the amount of risk you're taking. ADV 9727526. Or are also we've been following the and job the initial jobs claims over the last several years we've seen that number and. What time lows are jobless claims are way way down and we had another almost record low this past week. Came in at 234000. That's unbelievably good. And what this means is so far it looks like the January jobs report is going to be quite good so as you know that comes out just at the beginning of February for January and our who's one of the most watched our pieces of economic data that we have. Why because it really says how many jobs are being added. I Torre economy and I. Yeah all part of that is it's a net. And out so if you're not laying people off that's a good thing because you have to replace those people where you get net act so that's why these. Initial unemployment claims are very very important and there are art really at the and the lows that they've been off for thirty or 35 years. Let's talk a bit about the Mexican peso mosque was hit we've seen that I'm so sorry she never really fall off the table yes and a lot of it of course having to do with drum straight policy I think we talked about this every weekend when absolutely and and ask why did you analysts doubt and it was down to another lull. Doesn't that's Alex only said last week and the week before and the week before now so I ask you two part question so let's talk a little bit but what we saw over the last week yeah let's also talk about what we might see over the next couple of weeks now that Donald Trump is president now if he'd actually starts enacting some of these trade policies or feedback from slightly. Yeah so it is very good question and this isn't oh geez I don't think the Mexicans like us or don't like us or I don't understand why the pesos losing value when I go through a little bit of this you're gonna understand this much better and gonna say oh my goodness I'm I'm surprised it hasn't dropped more and frankly. That is partly arbitrage knew exactly who question just asked me which was. On there's still a belief that maybe what he does won't be as draconian as what he says he's going to zoom and so I actually believe there's more room for this thing default if our president trump does actually implement are some of the ideas that he suggested including you know. Are withdrawing from NAFTA and or building walls both of those things will have a material impact on and on the next can economy. So what are we scene of last week so. As I've said for the last three weeks in Iraq now at least of the Mexican pace so I felt we knew record lull on concerns about Trump's trade policy and also the wall. Why is it's so important. Because Mexico is a not a developed country OK and we entered into an agreement with them eight trade agreement with Mexico. And Canada called NAFTA the North American Free Trade Agreement in which we granted them privileged status among developing countries. And what that means is we allowed goods and services to go back and forth without tariffs and and as a result. What really meant was. Armed we could import things from Mexico we wouldn't put a tariff on top of that. And it would compete head to head with things made here in the United States if they're labor cost a lot less than ours and meant they got an awful lot of business out of the deal. Well since our trump this come on and said I'm getting rid of NAFTA I'm either gonna renegotiated. Or aren't gonna withdraw if they won't renegotiate. I'm the peso has dropped from about eighteen at. Point three pre election. Two twenty almost 22 pesos per dollar up post election that's a 17%. Devaluation. And what. Two months yeah I mean now that's significant difference and you might soul why. Well here's the deal. NAFTA has really if you look at the growth of Mexico on every economy over the last twenty plus years. It's been astounding. And it's all because of NAFTA they have a date palm of all of the or GDP. 30%. Of their GDP is exports from her and all of that 30% of GDP that is exports. 80% of it is exports to the United States rock so if that. You know is significantly adversely impacted you concede. The Mexican economy slowing down very very rapidly and in fact ticket this way. Next year. They are looking. At a GDP growth of instead of 2% this year minus 3%. Next year that is a very very big difference. And this situation isn't just confined to peso. Investments it's all so. Obviously reflects it's reflected in Mexican stocks because the companies that manufactured goods and services there. If the demand for either their goods and services goes down. Well guess what's gonna happen to a stock prices are gonna go down as well so overall this is a tough situation for Mexico. I would certainly if you're in an emerging market fond. Are are developing countries fond or even an international fund may have significant exposure to Mexico I would take a really good look at that because. I think Max goes in for tough ride into the truck administration. For some time com let's say you trip over Europe. How is that looking now actually it's getting interest and and I wanna talk a bit about Europe because. This is an area that I've been talking to our investors about quite a bit and we got more news this week that's really important and when it's John jumped to the punch line. That the punch line is this the risk of investing in Europe. Is I believe significantly higher now than it was a year ago or even nine months ago think about it this way. The Braxton vote had not even occurred until June that's that's only seven months ago okay. And yet here we are in January. And not only did Britain vote to leave the European Union but you've got to bond and the United States elected a populist president. But now you have several very important elections coming up in Europe. And then and we had noon noose about those today that might say that the European Union. May be in more apparel certainly that as are an economic body and even as the currency union. Then it did even nine months ago and again this goes to what I said at the beginning of the show. If you're in the same investment necks. As you were or are you work well I don't know how we can be it's good to me that's irresponsible. Based on the fact of what we know today vs what we knew nine months ago. So let's start with there are some of the the data coming out of your resume while so surprising. Eurozone output to suggested a strong upturn in November up 3.2. Percent for this year it's like manufacturing to cut and that's a really good number and good gains were especially visible in both France and Spain. And he also interest thing was a lot was in nondurable goods which means that consumers just one out and spent so consumers were feeling pretty good. In Europe. Even after our. On the tracks that occurred and even after trump was elected president of the United States there won't didn't seem to be any kind of concern. About either of those events. Because consumers when consumers get nervous the first thing you do is close up their pocketbooks and start to save that did not happen. In November this past year. It was a busy week under the UK in particular well it was because it on the good news front it's reported that the UK economy performed better. Than almost anybody predicted an up I can just were refresh your memory candy to remember one job Britain. Are voted to leave the European Union lawyer spoke last week of Joan he was June 23 24 somewhere there. And immediately the Bank of England came out said were cutting or interest rates and were changing our GDP forecast. We're wrecked our slash or GDP forecast from tour half percent down point 7% so the more like a sky a small it's everything's gonna stop no one's gonna buy anything anymore and were gonna go winter stagnation if not recession and in Britain. Well guess what happened the British consumers missed the memo yeah they kept buying. And in fact. The IMF recently reply underestimated GDP growth in the UK to 2% for 2016. Which is. Almost what it had been. You know before any bricks at voted occur and by the way that's also comfortably higher than what the US GDP growth is forecasted to be by the IMF. People keep missing the boat on some of these populist moves are well. Part of it is it's short term vs intermediate Tucker so you know. My reaction was actually quite similar to the Financial Times in this particular case my reaction was. Nobody in Britain has yet felt the impact of the bricks when it starts to become obvious and it's harder to rent out your flat in London and you're you're commercial real estate person. And also people haven't felt the impact really yet of the pound pound sterling us. 20% devaluation. That's got to propel higher inflation. Went when you start to feel less stuff people get a little less excited about how well things are going and things can slow down so. The good news though is so far it hasn't slowed down on the bad news side a promise to both. But the prime minister of Great Britain Teresa may said this week that the UK does intend to leave the EU single market. And it would no longer replied by a bunch of key rules associated with it. There were those who had held out hope that perhaps. Are Britain would use the excuse that parliament would vote on it and they might vote against it. Teresa may said that's just not gonna happen there may be a vote the world we've always come back with a bit more on Europe and we moved to the thanks its plans strong financial form. This is tall Parsons president of planned strong investment management. And you're listening to them planned strong financial forum on WRKO. Boston's talk station. If you like what you hear on our show and what immediate take a look at your investments and retirement plan called my office of 80889727526. That's 888972. Plan. Securities and investment advisory services offered through metro metro group member to go as I can sequester investment management is an affiliate of mismanagement grouping concluded that any Washington street domestically and six. Hi this is Avi Nelson people use different strategies to acquire enough money for retirement some try to do it themselves. Others buy insurance for investment products though sometimes those benefit the seller more than the buyer what makes sense is to hire an advisor with first rate credentials and why do investment management experience. Should have a fiduciary obligation to act in your best interest. And be paid the same amount no matter what your invested in it these things matter to you. Call Paul Parsons had planned strong investment management to learn more call 888. 9727526. Hiring the right advisor could be your best investment that's 888972. Plan. Or vision plan strong dot com. Securities and investment advisory services offered through next financial grouping member tumor SIPC plans to investment management does not an affiliate of next match of group think and is located at 980 Washington street Dedham mass. Ground zero for your financial news and economic commentary. This is the plan's strong financial forum where all Parsons president of home plans stronger investment management. It's. And again Garber at the anchor desk along with all Parsons is the plan strong financial form and as we've been talking about you've probably gotten your year end statement by now. And you or statements should say many folks have several coming in. And if you look at the bottom review last paged. You've noticed that there are quite a few numbers there benchmarks but. It's hard to call index indexes aren't they are really begs for starts it's not a benchmark with a and I could really use. The loss hard to figure out who's asked for or even what's an. And as you mentioned they are required to give all these in decked out. Loewen settled because yeah you did you know they do use a standardized format and they literally apply indexes for everything from US stocks small cap mid cap large cap to their international stocks too different kinds of bonds that you you name it. And took my seat. Thirty or forty numbers of Google little pretty little graphs. And think to beat out I can't possibly imagine how long going to look at all forty of those and put together and come up with a number for me to compare your at a return to just kind of say this cake. This is how I did how should I have forgotten. And and then how do you even digest it properly do you not only look at say this year's return. But how'd she do the last couple years. Because what's really good about the last few years if you're thinking you're soft you know it's probably time for me to what value weight either my own performance the performance and people are hired to manage my money form and well the good news is we are pretty good year in 2014. We had not so good you are 2015. And we had a pretty good year and 2016 so you've had good markets are not so good markets how did your person do. And how should they have done in each of those three years. Those are the questions you really should ask and have the correct answer to and it's not you can go to other thing that's import as the benchmark castill reflect. The level of risk you took in each of those three years. And of course we also have to talk about the fact that if euros if your stocks and bonds or line the way they were a year ago. Or six months ago. Win we have a different president and different prospects for a new president also really good point I mean most people thought that Hillary Clinton would be arm would have been the persons held. Putting their left hand on the Bible yesterday ranked so of that if that's the case there's you mentioned before you could be in for suffer big surprise yeah so this is the time folks to give Paul a call. He'd be happy to sit with you and what you know what you'd number result in a way help you figure out that benchmark that works for you basically that what you did and when you should've done given the amount of risk that you are assuming. 8889727526. Is Paul's number 8088972. Plan or go online to plant strong dot com. Send them an email we'll be right back TU on Monday just say pol let's open meeting it's time to discuss where I am or were you should be. 8889727526. Are also getting back to Europe were to item in the eurozone in Europe we addressed the UK and debt. Speaking of the eurozone we heard firm George Soros old friend George Soros over this week. Now a lot of people know George Soros because she was actually a very famous investor. He's got a very interest and background I mean here's a guy who was born in 1930. He was brought up and Hungary. And was Jewish. But survived. By a by actually being covered by people aren't as she was young person. So this man's had a pretty tough life having said that he ultimately became a billionaire financier a lot of people have listened to on. Primarily because he made up of the right call shorting or betting against the British pound back in the 1990s got me a ton of money from that. And ever since then he's had a lot of cachet. Because of that. But having said that the don't forget the weight that this man makes money typically is by shorting or betting against something going up. And so I always take what. Somebody like this says would be very big grain of salt because it's in their best interest but the thing to go down right okay so the minute to these guys ever start talks something up I will listen to what the minute they say all you this is terrible and it's only gonna go down. I look at that say that's you know very self serve OK so anyway Soros was at Davos this week which is in Switzerland and that's where they have the World Economic Forum work. You're a lot of the biggest names of our corporate titans government tightens. And business are titans all get together and and compare reach others. You know various strategies and and it's actually a fabulous. Place for them to get together. Soros. At some remarks this week Aron what he said was he expects markets to slump. We as president trumpet in the United States and he expects frankly that the European Union. Faces disintegration. And so again this is a man who shortstop from OK so. You don't expect him to say Rosie stuff and boy you'd let us down. He also one other thing he said and that the reason I'm glad you brought that up as we just talked about Teresa may enter in Britain. He doesn't think Teresa may will last long. As the out that the prime minister of Britain. So a couple of you know not so positive things to be said he's not trump fan you know he was a big Hillary supporter he's always been a very big democratic supporter so. Again I I take a lot of that with a grain of salt. But at the same time I do look at least talk about Europe and I dual greed and I think there is risk there certainly in my opinion is more risky new Europe now than there was say six to nine months ago. And some news out of France as well the U over the last week yeah I sell. You know France is really important because. Palm they are the second largest economy in the European Union behind Germany it's it's Germany France and Italy are the top three okay. And armed French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen and is actually. Trying to make the made presidential election that's four months from now earned. She try to make that into a referendum on the European Union by. To hold France from the block. Look at different this time now. In I think it was 2012. She ran on the idea that bush is pull up pull out immediately this time she's changed town she said you know what we're in a pullout and are measured orderly fashion. And I'm an attempt by France to pull out of the European Union frankly would be a lot more difficult than Britain doing the same thing right. Because France uses the Euro currency and Britain didn't and soap or doesn't they use the British pound sterling and continued to. What is why does that matter because all of a sudden you need to reintroduce. Another's currency again before the frank Bob back into Francis. Populace. If somehow. You know you're gonna I leave the their currency union what are people and used it to to actually buy their goods and services with it certainly adds another wrinkle of complexity. To France leading daily our European Union and by the way they've coined the term for access you know for as far as opposed to wrecks at fracture and had various fruit did okay. Now you might say well what's he got what's the likelihood of this lady actually. Running France becoming a bit the president of France. And it's going up it's still not super hot but she is now in the leaked according to latest Le monde. Our survey now Le monde this kind of the new York times of of of a fraction. It's the big newspaper in Paris. And LaMont for the first time said. That she is the leader now with 25 to 26% support while France swat are feel long has 23 to 25%. Support that's certainly sounds like grounding to near or within the margin of error rate but. They're also sang in the same report that look hand probably wouldn't. On even though she wouldn't make the finals are round of voting should probably would not. Beat. Dot the president because feel long would work with others and and are her. Party would probably not be able to run it. You save that but it sounds kind of familiar pose an iron and then let me tell you one other thing that the basis for that opinion is because. Even though a majority. Of the French people would like to see a vote on a referendum. The difference is 33%. Would vote to leaf while 45%. Would vote to us today that's what they're saying right now but fascinating. That the majority of the French voters. Would like to see your referendum on staying vs leaving. I have to tell you when I hear something like that it makes me think this is more possible probable. Then perhaps the polls are showing in. When it really means to me is investors in Europe to be where because a at least according to Barron's. If you look Penn wins capital will flow are France. But if feel long winds and and the he gets his own government. Then a bunch of businesses in France would probably do better including auto industry stocks energy and banks. Anderson news regarding quantitative easing coming out of the eurozone Mario Draghi spoke well this just yet another example of why European Union's kind of in trouble here and it was gonna happen sort earlier or and it's finally really happen and that's nest. Mario dried news ahead of European Central Bank came out this week and he said. They were gonna stay the course organizer for another nine months. Where do bond buying our quantitative easing just like we did the United States although we stopped at this point but they're still doing coach and the reason they're doing it is because some of the countries and European Union continue to struggle you know look at the unemployment rates in Italy and Spain and some other places and so their sank. You know we need continued support we got to keep rates slow so businesses can borrow money at low rates to try to simulate or economies. Well that's fine except one problem Germany's 21 good. So if juries doing well already and their growing at two plus percent GDP growth and now they're also starting to see inflation. Well not you've got a problem because you got the German people who are gonna see inflation. All in the air goods and services and at the same time. They are not going to raise rates to combat that inflation and at ECB level. Now you've got what are called divergent goals from Germany would like to tighten. Some of the the southern European countries would like to continue having loose policy. What are you DO credit and to our guests are actually illustrates the problem with that we're seeing for the eurozone castle he does and and that's why you know I do agree with Soros I'm not saying medical disintegrate but I think that the risk. All of Europe. And European Union running into real trouble the next yours higher significantly higher now than it was a year ago when again if you haven't adjusted. Your portfolio to reflect that. Then I'm not sure I understand your portfolio strategy. We give your number out again ball eighty Dade 9727526. EDD 8972. Plan or go online to plan strong dot com and send an email Paul we never got to the thanks so we'll cover that next week sounds terrific report to it it's a plus strong financial form. This is tall Parsons president of planned strong investment management. And you're listening to them plans strong financial forum on WRKO. Boston's talk station. If you like what you hear on our show and what I need to take a look at your investments and retirement plan called my office. 80889727526. That's 888972. Plan. Securities and investment advisory services offered through metro metro group member and as I can see Clinton mismanagement and filling in this country grouping that is located in Washington street domestically and six. And strong investment management is located 980 Washington street Dedham mass 0226. And can be reached at eighty 9727526. 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