Aug 10, 2017|
John Tozzi (Bloomberg, Americans Dying Younger) by The Financial Exchange
Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.
This is the headline that caught my attention. Americans are dying younger saving corporations billions of dollars. We're joined now by John pausing from Bloomberg I don't John. Very good so generally speaking what's happened to American life expectancy and death rates since 1950. Well I'm kind of looking over that Kyrie did on average I'm like expecting in US has improved by about 1%. Per year. You know and that's there's a lot of variation from year to year but that's sort of a long term I'm improvement actuaries. Observed. Until until recent. Okay so go back to the year 1970. You work until your age 65. What was your life expectancy or what was the life expectancy of the 65 year old back in 1970. Her life expectancy at six. 65 in 1970 was about. Until just have to AD so people can expect to live about another fifteen years. And what about a 65 year old that is retiring. In the year 2010. Well at that point you just like expectancy had increased by about four years. The so people have a life expectancy. At sixty fives on average traveler until 84. In fact we you point out in your article that in the last few years. Life expectancy rates have actually been flattening out and declining. Yet civilly and seeing incident. I was around 2010. They're ready that we collect expectancy. In. Firm and has slowed down pretty significantly from that in a 1% year average committee about half that. And for all life expectancy actually. Declined in. 2015. Slightly widgets. In I highly unusual in you know wealthy developed countries there's no war there's you know salmon. I'm to the bed and actual decrease in life expectancy is as pretty alarming signal. But let's go back to 1970 verses 1910. I would speculate that a lot of the increased life expectancy there was due to the decline in Spain tobacco and smoking weed we don't agree. Yeah I mean I think that that's part of that it's smoking rates certainly have. And effect and you know other king like medical innovation you know the development has. You know cholesterol lowering drugs and antibiotics and alternative. Things over this period contribute Q. You know that that changes that were like yeah. So would have that possibility. Today. Do you think our life expectancy is declining because of obesity perhaps or maybe drug use. Yeah it's really hard to pin it on any one factor. People studied this say that it services in a complex. Eight you know our arrangement of things than ten interactions between things that. You know I think some people have pointed here. In any effect. Drug abuse and alcohol and suicide there's paper that got a lot of attention. They're. Key years ago on on those topics. You know that effectively as he should be. Which has been rising steadily serve a number of years it is also we have potentially. Are coming into play but it's it's really hard to say that any one thing is not responsible. How pension plans addressing this because you know we hear about the shortfalls for social security and public pensions and private pensions. Will they perhaps to benefit from this decreased life expectancy. Well yes it's important that this is just one factor of many that goes into. Are estimated pension obligations and it's not. It's not generally the digit. You know things like that read about it return. Discount rate and salary levels and all that in effect to. Pension obligation. But it didn't it is a factor in you know what we noticed mortar story focused on its back. You know hey this is significant enough that companies are actually starting to take into account. You know there. You know their their pension obligations that you know we found about a dozen big industrial companies in the US that. Have. Disclose the impact of these. Terrible lies mortality trends in there annual report. Today you mentioned a couple of them Lockheed. My son and use them yet just homeowners that well again they're you know it. Several other companies and that sort of sci category you know did big get. Big employers big retirement. Either retiree population the and you know they eat what they do that today. Draw on projections that actuary is made it. And when the actuary sort of revived there projections based on recent Cannes and the mortality and that can affect their air and obligations. Are you seeing similar things in like the UK you're Canada. Yeah you know there's actually. It does not a phenomenon. Yeah the United States there's purport. Recently looking at those three countries that in you know that this slowdowns in mortality improvement. And in all three countries. It's a different degrees and in and one of the things that report looks for UK actuary. Group had mentioned the lead that. They're after the recession and there were certain cup tax and social programs and safety net programs that. You know generally. To protect. Vulnerable people on you know providing health care. Social benefits and that those kind of stereotype back to conduct my pronounced in the UK. Could be contributing to. And are seeing. Or get John thank you very much for time we appreciate it. I am. John causey Bloomberg. You know you look at this smoking rates rightly so the first that we had was just 1970. We can understand why mortality rates were. Much higher rate is short back in the seventies could be opposed smoked right if I was at 40% of American adults smoked cigarettes in the 1960s so it's amazing in the the Libya on 65 at all. But now. You're you're down two what does it mean 15%. Yes it's it's. And I think my cumulus and Amadou like thirteen or fourteen him but. What has happened along the road you know during that same time period. Is we've got a lot fat obesity OK there's no doubt we've gotten fatter when you take a look at the leading cause of death in the US number one his heart disease okay. No they don't call out obesity but that could be it's a lot of areas of a reasonable tied to obesity. Cancer doesn't really have a ton to do with obesity in some cases but sometimes cancer are related to wait and died in things like that chronicle or respiratory disease that gets more ad down. You know smoking in that something that has declined a little bit. Then you you know you've got accidents you've got stroke which is related to wait and you've got diabetes which is related to wait so. You know all of those different pieces order drug use you know we keep reporting on OP aides. I hate I wonder if that is that to the point now where drug and alcohol abuse. It is starting to affect mortality rates there's no doubt it is it it absolutely is affecting their own TV news the there's evidence that actually we have an interview coming up that demonstrates that as well. V the potential is that people are drinking more heavily. And using more drugs and that's contributing to higher freedom mortality I think that period. In a lot of cases there's a pretty clear link there. At this point in what you've seen here so this is in terms of destined to drugs but okay. The in particular for OP it's OK okay. From 1999. To 2014 and the numbers there the rate of OP UA deaths increased from one point four people per 100000. Up to five point nine hole if quadruple hole. Okay. So that's only as an intimate in by 2015 it was up to 70 Hillary is now as we we probably don't have the sixteenth I don't have the sixteen ones but when we know it's we know it's spike you know swing and a sixteen years it Quinn topple. OK so you know when people say oh that you know that hoping it would crisis has expanded greatly. It's quick the number of people dying from mobile woods now has gone up. Five apple you know I don't think it eighteen years early people appreciated until. It affects their immediate family. Or some like their neighbor's kid if something like that unity until it happens to somebody you know focused. It it's still a relatively rare occurrence is not something. If it's always have it's happening to the neighbor until it's not until it's in your house yeah and again it used to be some that the point 001%. Of the population and now again it's it's five times as bad as it was fifteen years ago.