Scott Rasmussen: "Elizabeth Warren will win" the Massachusetts Senate race over Scott Brown
Nov 5, 2012|
BREAKING NEWS: Scott Rasmussen says polling indicates that Elizabeth Warren will win the race against Scott Brown.
Transcript - will not be 100% accurate
Welcome back to the corner every board this is Jeff corner Boston's bull those third. Cleaning up old liberal bowl 6172666. BA six BA. Worse still trying to get god -- you send the country's toppled third on the. On apparently is a little bit tied up. I think finishing off another interview. And the moment we get them we will get him on the line and on the air. The latest polls. Rouse -- Sen Obama 49. Romney 49. ABC Washington Post Obama 49. Romney 48. Gallup. Obama 48. Romney 48. CNN. Because it tolerate a dead heat however. Plus eleven Democrats. In the sampling. Florida. Romney 52. Obama 47. Michigan. Romney 47. Obama 46. This is Michigan. This is the Rust Belt. This thing hasn't gone for a Republican and decades. Virginia. Obama 48. Romney 47. Minutes soda. Romney 47. Obama 46. This is extremely close is razor thin and we are now joined by one of the country's top pollster. Scott ransom you say and Scott thanks for agreeing to come on the corner report. We're a very. Scott. So what I'm looking at right now your latest poll has it what Obama 49 Romney 49. That's right and that looked -- numbers nationally have been very close all year. They've been especially vote since the first presidential debate. Yeah and you know the question is gonna be who actually shows up in -- vote if seniors are more enthusiastic and shop in larger numbers and we expect. Well that's really good news for governor Romney. It's the African turn out every American -- or Latino turnout is a little bit higher and that's going to be very good news for President Obama. Scott. In terms of your methodology when you do polls. We just had a quick segment just before you came on about the questions that our listeners would most like to post TU. One of them is. How do you when you look when you call somebody up with caller right -- now where people say that's a pulls the -- don't wanna pick up the phone. Hordes of people that are responding to your polls are they reliable people are they people were likely to vote. Well there's there's two answers there first is. People -- -- -- an answer when they have time we call you and your in the middle doing something important you're not gonna take the all we do know that we call back people refuse just the first night. We get we get a pretty good response tree ornament at different time -- another night and we also know the results are fairly civil war however. The reality is. Five years from today there will be no telephone pole as we as we now know. The fact this is probably the last election last presidential election that will be done primarily with all the polling. Full or work along side because we're people communicated. Now we need to captain's duty social media world because that would be. Scott a lot of these state polls. Are according to some sources like ABC news in the Washington Post and CNN. They're saying that these state polls like in Wisconsin like in Iowa like in Ohio. Are trending towards Obama. Is that what you're seeing as well. -- in fact in Ohio. A brand new poll out yesterday -- it restricted to 48 Obama at fifty. Romney had 48. But the week earlier -- it's -- 4949. So essentially the same result put in the yesterday's result they pointed out. Did if Republican turnout is higher he could throw this state to governor Romney are leaders -- -- -- the race didn't even as well. This it is so you know it -- in these numbers. We're all making last assumptions about who's going to try and how we we derive those assumptions from the numbers -- question or asking people. But ultimately. We're trying to measures something that. Is a little bit in measurable. In that we never had a -- Pummeled the advertising -- -- campaigning as much as Ohio has been this year. Getting an accurate sense. Is very difficult what I am advising people to do -- to recognize the polls so it's very close. If it is leaning one way or the other might be in Obama's direction but we really don't know that it would have to wait and see what turnout looks like starting only hear the results from Virginia tomorrow. Scott. Going back to 1980. About a week before the election. There was almost a dead heat between Carter and Reagan even up to 34 days before the election and then it all swung decisively towards Reagan. Do you see something like that happening for written Mitt Romney. -- the law don't see any possibility that it will go in the we look through regular here can point victory. It is there is a possible scenario where Mitt Romney could -- say by report nationally. And have a good run in a lot of the swing states. Likable old is projected that would yet to -- Romney to 315 electoral votes in today's world that'll be decisive victory but in 1980 we didn't have talk radio didn't have cable news we didn't have the Internet we didn't have Porter. We we were gonna differ -- people not have the same local information. And the other difference in 1980 so now is the only debate between Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter was one week before the election. It that was a decisive all the. OK okay Eric Scott. Do you see any third party candidacies out their Gary Johnson in Colorado the libertarian. Having a decisive influence on this election. -- very well Mark -- and Hillary I say there are record report sure to vote. But they are gonna pick it up for and all boats in battleground states. -- -- races as close as it looks to be a third party candidate. Could just swing the election in one direction or the other I think it's worth pointing out that people who are in states like -- -- New York. -- Massachusetts. Appear to be a little more likely -- third party candidate and people on the battleground states and that's because as a way to send a message and -- there's no dispute no doubt about which way the electoral ultra large state Waldo. Do you think it hurts Romney any third party out there do you think it hurts Romney -- hurts Obama more. It's very difficult to tell the people who are on who initially certainly prefer -- a third party candidates. You know we do rational follow questioned heresy outs are committed they are to a we asked them and who they would vote for we're gonna choose and it's was pretty much down the middle between Romney and Obama. Again we're talking about a sliver of the electorate. Scott in terms of independence. According to your polling who is doing better with independents. Mitt Romney is doing better -- independents nationally and in most the chief State's he's trying to overcome. The year. Our nation that in every poll book once in the water district -- -- shall award Democrats coming to the polls. Then Republican so. And so the question gets to be. If this is pretty electorate is -- 39%. Democrats and 37%. Republicans. The independent -- what Mitt Romney over the top -- the Democrats have a bigger management -- Then it may not be enough. Scott I have a theory and I wanted to bounce this softer view. I've spoken to many liberal operatives not just in Boston but in in in Washington DC. A lot of Democrats big time liberals. Privately they've been telling me. There are gonna vote for Mitt Romney however. They say when their asked by pollsters. They say they're gonna vote for Obama and I say walk. And they say because I don't wanna be seen or perceived as a racist. Do you see any of that or somebody says you know -- I don't wanna be characterized as a racist. Because if I say I'm not gonna vote for a black man for a second term that's the way could come across. Do you see any of that in the polling sampling. And hence tomorrow you may see a shock 5347. Romney. Because the polling is off because people haven't been quite frank or or -- and you -- or honest with the pollsters. Well I wouldn't be shocked if the numbers would Jewish six point Romney retreat generally imagine this area -- that -- there are some people who may responders are describing it sure. But we know in in the of city forty years ago we were to poll. We were noted discrepancy between automated polls satellite operator holes. And the automated polls. Would always show. More support for Saturday -- agency girls who were perceived as perhaps being racist. Because people are caught on and others you Linda. That answer however that discrepancy is now on I don't think it is going to be a significant factor in the election. -- -- Why have so many pollsters you know why are they using 2008 models is Obama gonna get the same amount as support from white voters say. That he did in 2008. Or let's. Know that there. There's no way Obama 43%. -- the white vote in 2000 -- I think you'll struggle to get to 40% this year probably you know 3730%. Range -- most polls are short course is. What share of the electorate will be white voters in 2008. It was 74%. The Obama campaign argues -- -- all of -- are certainly 2% in this election. Others are saying -- increased a little bit. Mind -- I look at the numbers. The African American turnout is likely Regis is hardest time -- wars in 2008. The Latino turnout may be a little bit later than orders for years ago. And a quick hitters out strong late turn out pretty. And the other the other issue this is so it has not done a lot of play in this campaign. The question -- a lot of focus on the -- crucial what how how close we can 29 year old participate. I think the big question is. How -- the seniors turnout. Senior citizens are. Angry that the way things are going. They are who are leaning towards Mitt Romney by nearly twenty point margin and it's bigger turnout goes -- this year. That -- -- very bad news for the Obama campaign generational -- these very real. In the interest is not received much attention which should. Interest and I Scott are our Republicans are more enthusiastic. To vote is their aunt Susie is their any enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats. Absolutely. Republicans much more fired up to vote and it's it's been interesting because so there -- a lot of stories. Say that you're Democrats are more enthusiastic about coaching candidate. And that was true for most of the year. After all -- -- strict Republican became a little bit more enthusiast well Mitt Romney. After the first debate it became a lot more enthusiastic about mayor -- and you know district shall there there -- -- a growing sense of enthusiasm here but the -- is. It's not what you like your caretaker. The determine how likely you're open vote. So closely Europe following the campaign. For a lot of Republicans doesn't matter to them what are the -- or Mitt Romney or against Barack Obama. They just what shall -- Google. Scott. On this squad brown Elizabeth Warren race. How is it that Scott Brown has such high favorability ratings compared to Warren. And yet the polls show it's neck and neck. All. Quote the choice -- strap -- a little -- war and -- no doubt the brown would. However if it's a choice between new York Republican controlled senate where Democrats control the Massachusetts. That's a no brainer. -- this is the year the partisan. Gravity of the state of Massachusetts will win out Elizabeth Warren probably the street -- seek seek. Just because people want to vote for hell they're washing. Scott who do you think is gonna win the brown Warren race. I I think you'll be Elizabeth -- its. I'm not saying that we're pretty high level operatives are latest poll sure she used -- The numbers have been -- a little bit in her direction and I think what we're seeing is this the hardest and they were strong perception the cold certainly be at stake this year. And that -- war. Scott final question I'm gonna put you on the spot. Who wins tomorrow. Romney or Obama. I have absolutely no idea. It. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- It is -- in the key swing states. I can tell you that I think understood you know looking for number one to watch results and Virginia. To see how they compare to the preelection poll and it. -- early state to report to Romney is doing well we're doing better in the polls you are strict fuel and there are gonna look. At a couple states that are going to be -- the two biggest Ohio and Wisconsin. Are -- -- to win in Florida which I think you'll do fairly well in Virginia which are closer. And any -- to win either Ohio or Wisconsin. To move into the White House and -- indicators torture or are right. Scott you think he'll win Ohio if -- Romney can win Ohio and all show. So. -- We have been talking to -- he taught pollster in America. Scott brass music and Scott thank you so much for coming on the -- report. Take care. It's very -- ladies and gentlemen. Elizabeth Warren he says will win and says the races to close the call Scott who do you think is gonna win the brown Warren race. Mobile war. There you go. I mean are you depressed or what they did cherokees must be partying right now. The first cherokees senator that she is spreading bull she's gonna make it. Use it how could we wanted to talk about what's going on here since 86. Feet.