Nariman Behravesh, IHS Chief Economist on the Economy
Nov 19, 2012|
Nariman Behravesh, IHS Chief Economist on the Economy.
Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.
Well we are joined by Merriman very bearish he is the chief economist at -- -- he joins us today to talk about the economy good morning Herman -- -- you know generally I've always considered the stock market to be a precursor. To the economy the stock market's been down a lot since election does that mean that we're gonna have a slowing economy in 2013. Not necessarily in this case I think what could be our stock markets reflecting has business pessimism. But what this stock markets missing is consumer optimism and that seems to me is that Tug of war on non. Treat consumers and businesses consumers more optimistic spending. Business is fairly pessimistic word about the fiscal clever. Not -- it yeah that's a simplistic way of saying -- but that's kind of what's going on right now. Hamachi you know Kazaa I look at corporate balance sheets their their flush with cash. How much pent up demand is there and if you actually had some. Consistency. In resolution to conflict in Washington. What would the impact beyond that cash would companies deploy their cash. I think -- certainly be more willing to do that some pundits have -- where one budget agreement away from a blown. I think there's some truth to that in the sense that I think it's business as will be much more willing to spend once the uncertainty about the fiscal situation. Has been cleared up at least somewhat -- You know when -- Talked to economists office asked them this question I'll ask you the same one I've I asked the mall. Where is the demand going to come from you know there seems to be a lack of growth and a lack of demand. I can't see it you know we'll be back in the ninety's we had the Internet bubble. In the 2000 we have the housing bubble -- what's that. What's the engine that will drive demand this decade. Well I think it's a variety of things I think growth overseas will pick topic slowed down quite a bit recently but it will -- a -- so a lot of the demand will come outside the US. But the other is the consumers will span that 70% of the economy. Not going to be spending in the problematic -- spent a decade ago which is. That's fueled kind of consumer spending consumers and her -- -- like home equity loans and so want. But they will span -- mean that given that got the money income growth has been pretty good so I think to become basic consumer spending and exports W. -- how will the will the impact -- of all these retirees we've never had this many retirees in the United States before we've never had the growth. In in the retiree sector like we're seeing right now how does that impact the economy how does that impact your projections. Well we factored those and of course but it's not so much will expand of course there will be questions on -- wilders. They're gonna spent problem travel that's the fun stuff and on health care which is not the so not so much the stuff that that work so that it's government that mix will change. There are in Pakistan on. College education advocate and activist and on maybe I'm not not a much a part housing that they will spend on healthcare probably trouble. And selected mean if they're not gonna spend on housing does that bode poorly for the housing sector. What in -- it does right away where we're playing catchup to housing is bouncing back in time. Housing won't be quite the driver's span and in the -- com. Well merriment thank you very much I do appreciate your time. Thank -- York -- and Herman bearish joining us today. On the financial exchange you know it's it's tough to make cents. You know one hand there's a lot of indications that the economy's gonna go into recession. And the other side you've got all this cash sitting on corporate balance sheets companies are. Catholic gone on for a few years that's side of it -- consumer set the consumer sentiment seems pretty positive yeah so I know soul what you do. Going forward very what -- we. What's the mindset here well I can tell you DeVine said at. TJ Maxx about 3000. This coming back to worker abuse if you will. About 3000 TJ Maxx assistant managers nationwide. Will be allowed to join a lawsuit against TJ Maxx. For failure to pay overtime following a federal. Court ruling earlier this week. The ruling is actually was this was last week. The ruling in US district court for eastern New York grants conditional certification. For collective action lawsuits similar to a class action lawsuit which was filed in early 2011. By a former assistant manager in New York. The complaint alleges that the Framingham company regularly. Required Mohamed Ahmed. And other sour read assistant managers to perform duties usually done by hourly workers such as running the cash registers. And unloading delivery trucks without paying them overtime when they worked more than forty hours -- -- do you have any friends that work in -- a supervisory capacity in retail. I do. But I by topic yeah you know they have to -- in on Christmas is and they have to go in on Sundays because somebody. Is there don't want to have to be there at midnight on Black Friday app because maybe somebody can't commanders via via the works tell a lot of our -- him the a certain line actually overpaid. There are underpaid overworked he could argue it's a violation of the fair labor standard act. This according to Serra Kane who's representing a -- about 3000 assistant managers who worked at TJ Max from August of 2007. To present. Through this time his frame is in dispute could receive invitations to join the lawsuit TJ Maxx which also runs marshalls and home goods did not return calls the I'm good neither. I would either but this is a problem for TJ Maxx ha the ID -- -- kind of comes back it's in the. Same theme. As our labor and union -- and they're not an union. Now they're not and that's but what I was saying before is whether you're if you know pro union against union at at the end they were formed to maybe help stop abuse -- -- workers who weren't getting healthcare group working overtime not getting paid doing things that they were exposed to doing whatever -- You know. -- is when it got us well that's it's not like he centers payoffs and bribes. Crazy stuff. David do we have me mutual fund guest coming up we do okay we're going to be joined by Carol essar from Morningstar will have some mutual funds for you to take a look at that's next on the financial extra.