Jan 17, 2013|
Karim Basta, Director of Research at III Associates
Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.
So should just point of interest in what time the sun came up to that. I think -- -- seven to ten it's dark when it at the house at 4:30 in the morning so now I have no idea what is is -- do it Mecca and the economy I'm just a junkie on this kind of stuff they. This is that I'm like a guy that I hate the dark -- -- the cold I don't mind the snow. I just don't like the darkness I know I know you keep some kind of a strange weird -- in nine hour and 28 minutes yeah okay that's a much daylight yet today no I wanna know what time the sun's going down every day for 38 today. Today and yesterday -- to moral will be will get about another hour -- minute and thirty seconds longer but this is if -- strange things you tackles this is a -- -- -- -- -- -- I'm a little -- yeah yeah. Like I appreciate it is asking every -- of the eighties but it anytime -- wanna know what -- the -- -- -- Monday. Okay and our guest is Korean -- now right now he's the director of research at reply associates previously he had been the chief economist at Merrill Lynch Canada. He's good enough to join us today and talk to us about the American economy for 20:13 the morning -- -- Good Kareem when we were. Discussing the economy during the Washington Seattle game about a week and a half ago in a much broader climate. You told me that. You know the US economy you thought the US economy was pleased. To have a pretty good year a pretty good couple years if congress and the government would just get out of the way it would what did you mean that. Audited and -- economy's really gone true you know a good chunk of good deleveraging process that would that very honest about it but -- goes. Couple two -- pretty broad and look and look out -- price and you know -- and you they are and and the current alt rock of the mortgage and in. But we picked through a lot of that crops and and don't -- -- out period and to be. You lengthy. That I -- in -- of medical related and very ignorant you know I would call that the green shoots of recovery. Accounting of -- oh. We're confident and -- a couple of -- -- are the equity market. At a lot. Powerful -- network should. But obviously in a week you have -- you mentioned. Doctor bit of uncertainty that we think really kind of had three episode. Back to back to back election that that -- -- and you know. We're copying the debt -- In a stock and a fellow about that that that debt ceiling and in some people think it's a big deal others think it's just like the fiscal cliff that's a lot of rhetoric it's a lot. Yeah I am wearing between congress and in the White House the president started it and on Monday in a kind of throwing down the gauntlet. Isn't it a foregone conclusion that they're gonna raise the debt ceiling. It's I I suppose are -- you know how much. You know pain and uncertainty that we ought to it and before we get there in we we -- You know a number of these episodes now over the last couple of years that. A grand game of chicken and people are willing to go over -- found to be to the wire and there could be some serious economic repercussions that could handle poorly the only unfortunate thing that these are. Officials whose job and it is not -- that's for the economy had to do. Either what -- their constituents or get reelected which is a little different than say the Federal Reserve would only mandated to. Due to a -- economy you can agree or disagree with their policies but that is there are specified -- that's really not the case -- the people who are arguing about the -- -- What did you make of -- guiding stars. Invasion of the federal employees pension fund this is a big story in the Wall Street Journal is this a real story or is it just is it is it. Kind of business as usual. Please -- as usual I mean there's a whole host of accounting gimmicks. That sure we'll see over the next. Several weeks to try. I -- a little bit more time but I wouldn't. Put a whole lot of docket that. -- -- based on what you see today and based on the economic environment. We have an unemployment rate to seven point 8% -- you think he gets to by the end of the year. I think we're probably in the Los -- by the end of the area you know you look out your unemployment rate at the very highly trending parable that. Rarely moved I have to percent in either direction and then reversed its course or look at a chart. Over the last 3040 years it's that kind of gone on March. Friend moved into wee birdie from down. Quite a bit. And you know can -- withstanding an accident next month I I don't really see much reason to. I think that trend is gonna reverse. All right well Kareem and it participation rate what does that do is that changer is it stayed the same. I think -- probably have moved up a little bit -- economy gets better people to reenter the workforce but yet that will make it a little harder get up immigrate to come down. As quickly as it has in the last year Q but I -- he's echoing have a higher. All right -- Karine thank you very much for your time and appreciate your you're the participation in the show. Thanks very hard Korean bass stuff. Director of research at triple lie associates joining us today I keep screwing up this FaceBook interview it is the next interview right David David Carnoy and I think apnea. I've I've put it out there like twenty times coming up and told everybody that it's next time it or is it really next. You sure -- a -- until I apologize.