Jan 18, 2013|
Bob Denk, National Association of Home Builders, on Home Builder sentiment
Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.
Lot of economic data breaking this morning some of it related to housing we're now joined by Bob yankees from the national association of homebuilders good morning Bob Howry. It it surprised data this morning at 830 he had basically a blowout number. In terms of the the housing data. That was released housing starts way up 954000. Homes started. With what do you make of that. Yes that's very good number. Single family starts our pace of 6161000. That's a very good number the multifamily sector considered -- of 338. Starts annually. That brings the multifamily sector really almost -- to normal. -- -- would multifamily side -- seeing a real solid recovery on the singles semi side that's 616. -- -- that's a good number it's up from December reaching progress also -- 2012. But we are still that's just about halfway back to normal so. Received some good numbers in December in all of 2012 but we've still got some ways to deal with Cingular -- Which is there enough demand. Two to take these houses any I guess because Mike. I see still a soft real estate market and I talked to consumers of say well I don't wanna sell my house now because McCain cannot money port. So it it looks to me like a housing market is still soft with your perspective. That's demand is coming back around an important thing that has happened term this year. As the house prices has begun to stabilize and actually moved up. That is critical. People who are themselves worried about the price. And the people on the bottom they're worried about the press them with prices moving up that's gonna make most of them a lot more comfortable we're getting to see that the numbers. But what about the high rated delinquent mortgages were still over 5%. Of people who have a mortgage that are delinquent on it. It would seem to me there's a lot more foreclosures coming through the pipeline. The foreclosure situation is definitely sort of a head wind holding packing more robust recovery. But that conditions. Those conditions delinquent mortgages there was has peaked it's still they're still elevated. It's still problem but we are over the hump we've seen big declines in the number of loans that are ninety days plus delinquent. That's sort of the pipeline into foreclosures. Each -- go to foreclosure start rate and the foreclosure inventory is inching down. So yes spat remains a problem an impediment to more robust to recovery but we are seeing some some movement some -- of this conditions. I here in the Boston area we're seeing a lot of migration from the suburbs into the city like when you look at Condo sales in Boston -- through the roof the prices are going up. Single family home sales though are not going up and they're not recovering is rapidly. As as Condo prices are. Is that something that's going on nationally or is that just in the Boston area where you're seeing these empty Nester wanna sell their suburban home and move into the city. Well I think that it. There's there's a couple of questions -- Boston markets pretty local. And you can be seeing that. In your market one of the things to keep in mind. Is that the condoms tend to be sort of in lower price point so their post. Their post. Attractive to your -- investors want scaled -- but also the younger buyers to move are -- just a lower price point nationally. Says -- demographics. They have younger people tending to move into cities. That they also has their families and particularly. Demolition school aged children. They tend to prefer and suburbs in the school systems to larger cities. Bob you mentioned that the housing numbers the starts in the permits are about half of what it would be in a healthy market. How much longer do we have to wait before how -- housing becomes a healthy market is it five years ten years three years. So. I think it's important to note there. That term it's going to be different at different time in different markets housing markets are local local local so what we'll be seeing is the earliest markets. We expect to be -- to help the by the end of this year and the end of next year. However with some of the lagging markets in the bubble states like California Florida Gators are in the bottom. Those are some of the hardest hit markets. They're gonna be still in 26 team they're still gonna be -- do the best markets will be -- this year and next year. The hardest hit markets will he can still be a few more years at 226. How would you categorize Boston or New England. Actually Boston and they're New England area. There amongst some of the better markets. The New England area. And East Coast in general have had over the northeast. Had less. Boom and bust cycles and some of the other areas of the country. And so there's just last carnage and -- -- -- there is just moving faster. So you're suggesting that next year will be a little bit -- in Boston and in in New England area. Absolutely. I think most serious were in the country are getting better. And the best markets are going to be back to normal pretty quickly. Very -- Bob thanks very much for your time appreciate it. Thank you as Bob -- from the national association of homebuilders. I think that's somewhat consistent June with what we've learned when we talked to other real estate professionals right now they've said. You know the market's coming back I've I've talked to a realtor and she told me that like at Arlington. Area. Hot as they would tell longer Wilmington I have friends that and do real estate both those towns and make him tell me they're very busy at midfield slowed -- it made me eat it well. I should say it's slow it's. The people are getting the prices they want and if you have a higher end home like a million plus very difficult to get rid of it and you know and you also you know you hear this guy went on saying that this and then a few weeks ago you were saying you expected to bounce back -- like like 163 to five -- -- I I still think. Before you can get your money back. It's at least sixteen. You know for people that bought at the -- let's say you buy your house. I don't know 200520062007. In in you know in Dover. And in anywhere in -- -- place eastern mad at. I think you're looking at sixteen to twenty -- him 2016. To 20/20 yeah before the money I agree I think it's that long but I could be wrong -- you know. Couple things are gonna cover -- we gotten just dot. Breaking news on the Massachusetts unemployment rate. And we'll give you that data also were -- talk about it business group that wants to raise your retirement age to seventy that's coming up on the financial exchange.