Aug 28, 2013|
Peter Krause, Boston College Political Science Professor, on Syria
Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.
Well let's let's chat with him this morning. Peter Krause that he's at Boston College political science professor good morning sir thanks so much for joining us thank you good morning to you it's great to have your let me ask you right off the -- sir do you believe that we will go into Syria here. If you mean -- go in that we will be launching some type of military strike I think yes if you mean go it in terms of putting boots on the ground I think now. OK so what you do you anticipate his prop. Probably air strikes. Yes and you know there's various ways of doing it can be cruise missiles which -- a bit more standoffish the only risk American lives too high degree you can have. Airstrikes an American -- foreign pilots that. Again not too much risk that the Syrian anti aircraft as much better than something like Libya or Afghanistan but yeah I think some type of general stand up airstrikes hitting. Hearing command control political military targets perhaps the couple. Chemical weapons -- to vote and the message that regime as well as be able to say to them the American people we've at least somewhat degrade the capability to launch these types of chemical weapons. Now I think you just hit on it but let me just ask you this question yesterday the administration came out Jay Carney said. The idea and the objective here is not a regime change and yet you know a year ago our president cannot set aside had to go so what do you think is the objective. Well look I think that the objective of the -- attacked it seems to be coming in the next week or so is not regime change I look I think the White House would be happy. It is -- himself if there was some type of other group that was gonna take power that the United States supported. But I do think look we need think back not just to earlier in the yet this conflict but let's look at something like Libya we enter intervene in Libya with the UN Security Council resolution that that looked. We're gonna stop the killing the massacres in Libya and some people look at Syrians say hey. This actually indicate Libya because now forcing the massacres we -- in Libya because what. We took that resolution from the UN that we ran with it to the point that Qaddafi was overturned in overthrown in Libya's so some people think. At the people actually hoping supporters mention that this is kind of a foot in the door to actually pursuing machine changed others are actually quite worried that the worst there. An area that's kind of the mission creep that were worried about we get involved the of course of course limited way. Talk to me about Iran in the situation. Source so I look Iran. Here is basically Iran's biggest ally in the Arab Middle East -- has been for some time. Not only -- they kind of helped funnel supported weaponry to Hezbollah in Lebanon but they're also kind of you know a stalwart against the saudis and the other running in rivals. Ron has been standing. Military advisors in perhaps the -- is some. The reports even troops into fighting infuriate to support us about -- they are putting you know their whole reputation and a lot of there. You know money and power on the line to try to keep in the power. On the they also cared deeply about Hezbollah in Lebanon and from the other actors so they're not gonna do go down and let him go down without -- I'm at the same time Israelis the Americans are also -- to look it you're running nuclear pro candidate elected the president appears so. A lot of things in flux going on with -- relationship but they're actually quite focused right now supporting not. Can we get a coalition of support here. We -- but it depends on what that's coalition wants -- cute looking at the UN that's not gonna happen the Russians and perhaps even the Chinese. I would veto any type of resolution precisely because in part. What happened Libya where they signed off on in -- the US and other allied kind of took them for a while there -- we went and went in -- that about these so. And I could get a UN Security Council resolution most likely instead we -- maybe it again is kind of NATO or NATO -- allies like the British the French and the Turks getting involved. The Arab League has come out and condemned chemical weapons attack but they haven't actually said that they support any. The strike expected that they don't so it'll be so you know kind of international coalition of more than just United States but it won't be something as big a human baby dust big result it. What about the Germans in the Italians. After the Germans have come out -- out of that look we don't wanna do it they tried to -- the -- to back -- the big ears though you know for that reason alone I think. The -- NATO ally but not NATO getting involved here now interesting to note. Turkey was actually hit by artillery fire earlier on this conflict. Could it actually invoked article by the thing what is attack -- a -- country we should be able to respond but. The fact she's so pretty strong restraint there. -- part because they don't want to get into direct conflict with experience -- actively been supporting some of the rebels but. They don't want to get to shooting war -- is in fact one of their concern that this is not so much. You're could respond by hitting United States or anything like that but they could strike Turkey which -- borders -- concerned. Absolutely interesting too because the Germans take 32% of their oil out of Syria. So it's amazing that the Germans in the Italians 31% of their oil coming from there. Are not or actively involved talk to us professor if you will about Russia and China because the Russians have come up and said they do not support military action. Yet now again won anything yet to do with politics it's not just the Russian the American Chinese except the way we talk about things rhetorically is often not you know I hit. And international law and norms when in reality a lot of the time countries are acting on self interest. Russia is no different here. Syria is basically their last meter tall old. In the Middle East the country that they haven't naval base in these supplied with weapons and so they have a pretty strong interest in the is not regime staying in power stoke the the fact they they don't support US strike US military action in large part is because they support these batteries they don't want you involved. -- that regard. And finally let me ask you about the Syrian people did they want us there -- did they want this coalition to come together. Got great question arms so the first thing to know it's just you -- people right now I mean they're undergoing a civil war so. There is -- singles -- people that has you know one unified opinion they're definitely a number of series you don't want the US involved either because they support these -- team or even some of the don't sport -- soccer team. The US as in imperial powers -- what was it again involved for its own interest. However there are other -- -- here in law that would like the US be involved. And it really become an around the country like that. But it helped to remove what they see it as brutal dictator has been responsible for the deaths of over 400000 peoples so very split opinion there almost like there's in the United States. Whatever the US there's going to be criticism there's gonna be support so hopefully -- policy makers are thinking long and hard about what policies best from their perspective and not worry so much about public. Church seems to be a lack of an of opposition in terms of the -- single head who's opposing aside is that a fair assessment. Well that the Cadillac up opposition but I think -- there it is -- appoint his lack of cohesion amongst -- that you need her opposition actors and large numbers of various rebel groups the the priest -- army. Two upheld the astronaut Qaeda affiliate group to Muslim Brotherhood it's -- groups. With the problem is there's not cohesion summit that's because there's so many various states that are supporting these groups from the saudis of the country's for the Turks to the United -- status and degree. And everyone wants kind of a different flavor of opposition. Because -- loved the Muslim Brotherhood -- -- groups that saudis actually don't like and safety division rivals to their own personal political Islam United States like some of the secular nationalist groups so. You know what did the data wanted to not gone but there's a lot of -- infighting and rivalry for who's going to be leading the coalition who's gonna be leading. Other rebellion who are -- gonna run the country if it's not regime goes that's one of the major problems and one of the reasons why is not regime still stand. -- Peter cross thank you sir very much for joining us where you're inside it's been fantastic we'll we'll come back Q again please did you must be done and up up up up what -- Shaky serve or not he -- he had his arms around again that answer right. What's out there and for a lot of us understand this all happened you know in the Arab Spring is well and it comes to light for for those of us in the United States and -- this I'd give it to so many factions. It it's hard for them to get a coalition of individuals just in Syria. You're the rebels there's a lot of fighting but they don't like each other right. So they're fighting -- but they don't like you know in this at this of course is the Arab world and it's very hard for we Americans I think to put our arms around that and understand. It in every facet we think of world symbol rate in January it was very clear cut right in your readers -- a month study eastern the other and then exit. So I think that's a very different and it also makes it hard for the administration to make decisions because again like you were saying. If we if we support one group are essentially supporting enemies that we have in other parts of the world and yet if we let that group continue on that where allowing these kinds of atrocities and his question. Whether Iran thinks that were weak and it just keeps going it's a very complex situation and obviously can have a big impact on world. Yes it is in and you know I'll tell you stocks right now the Dow is up thirty points as we speak here -- but I will tell you this. In my experience when you have this type of issue hanging out there are you had a sell -- you had a sell off I mean we're effectively down. On the Dow were down you know five or 6% almost the lowest month. This year -- and and off tea I'm I'm very concerned about this -- because if we don't know what the resolutions. By in the next 48 hours of what's going to happen is investors are going to sell their stocks and here's why. They're not gonna wanna be invested over a long weekend -- remembered Monday is labor that's right right so. If you speak invested in stocks if you stay long -- better be prepared to stay longer what it may be creating and and and I hate. You know again look at everything through rose colored glasses but it may create an opportunity. Where stocks did. Press artificially in -- of the item -- sure as a result Tuesday morning well Friday may use your big buying opportunity could end up being because on Tuesday it's going to be very crowded. If if say we we have a muted military action over the weekend it's not terribly dramatic. Then would happen is the balls will run back in on Tuesday. But you should anticipate. That Thursday priced -- just stick close to your advisor stick close to your cash in because it is this might be. Game in my and again he -- to turn this into agreed play but it might be an opportunity and makes money well. Again you know I don't think entering into -- great play I I just think you're speaking the truth about the markets and how it might impact of people listening -- now -- -- is that you get in the military you know here's a guy. Think and he makes -- announcement you can't. Anyway I I didn't -- mention something you know we talked about the impact of an oil price increase -- active against on and a few minutes -- -- talk to us about the potential for oil going 250 dollars a -- I find it very frightening. What I also find very frightening is the prospect that income taxes are going to increase and I'll give you some evidence to the unit that supports my argument. We have a seventeen trillion dollar deficit we have an aging population. 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Why oil might be going to a 150 dollars a barrel stay with us.